DragonBet Welsh Racing Festival
Chepstow - 9th - 11th October 2026
The Jumps are back! The Dragonbet Welsh Racing Festival at Chepstow is the traditional start to the main National Hunt season and even though the unseasonably hot and dry Summer weather took away the chase races, there was a definite sense that the Jumps season proper was underway. Having watched back the 3 days of occasion, I have highlighted below 5 horses from our data that look to be worth following over the course of the new season;
Herbie’s Sock (Tom Lacey)
The last few weeks have been dominated by the Twiston-Davies and Skelton yards and it was business as usual in the 2 divisions of the Wasdell Group Novices Hurdle on Friday. The 1st division was won by Cooltobecareless for Dan and Harry Skelton. He was a Fakenham bumper winner last season and was felt good enough to run in the Grade 2 at Aintree in April. Backed into even money on the off, he pulled clear to win by 13 lengths and looks to be another exciting prospect for the champion trainer. However, chasing him home was the hurdling debutante HERBIE’S SOCK for Tom Lacey in the colours of HFT Forklifts Ltd. A Point-to-Point winner in the Spring, this was his rules debut and I thought that he acquitted himself very nicely over what will surely prove to be an inadequate test. Tracking the pace on the inside rail, he was the only horse to really go with the winner once they cleared the 3rd last flight. Although ultimately beaten 13 lengths, his 13th and 14th furlongs were just 0.19s slower than the favourite and he matched the winner’s run-out speed, even as the patiently ridden Kind Intention (Tom Symonds) closed in 3rd. A £42,000 purchase in May, his pedigree would suggest that he will need much further than this in time, especially given that this race was run at a relative crawl with the winner recording a time that was 7.9s slower than our expected time figure with a finishing speed above 116%. At an average of 2.01 strides per second, Herbie’s Sock had one of the lowest stride frequency figures in the field and was considerably lower than our expected average for a winner over this course and distance. Despite that, he ran a fine race and although no match for the more experienced winner when the pace lifted, this can still be considered to be a promising start. As a “horse to follow”, he seems unlikely to win next time, but once he steps up in trip later in the season, Herbie’s Sock should prove more than capable of making his mark, with a long term career over fences surely the ultimate aim in a year or two.
Simonsberg (Christian Williams)
Steadily run races were the order of the day on Friday and as a result, there was a significant advantage to be gained from racing prominently. The Good Intents Marquee Hire Novices’ Hurdle over just short of 3 miles was a good example, with a winning time that was over 10s slower than expected. The race was won by Locker Boum (Twiston-Davies) who got the better of Little Lady Rock (Schofield) to win by over a length, with the pair of them recording finishing speeds above 113%. Although beaten 20 lengths in 3rd, I thought SIMONSBERG caught the eye for Christian Williams. A Point-to-Point recruit from Susan O’Gorman’s yard, he outran his 40/1 SP to finish 3rd and shaped like a horse who will take a significant step forward from this first experience under rules. Travelling strongly, he appeared to be going best of all when they approached the 3rd from home and recorded faster splits than the winner at that point in the contest. He couldn’t sustain the effort, not helped by the fact that he was the most inefficient hurdler in the field, losing an average of 11% of his speed over his obstacles. A top speed of 34.03 mph was considerably slower than both Locker Boum (36.32 mph) and Little Lady Rock (36.66 mph), but despite those limitations, he moved nicely and his stride frequency figures would suggest that he can relax in the middle part of the race and ought to be really suited by a decent stamina test. The yard are not renowned for their novice hurdlers, so it is highly likely that we won’t see the best of Simonsberg until he goes handicapping and his best run between the flags also came on soft ground. However, Christian Williams is extremely adept at getting his horses in the right races and in time, 3 miles and a fence should bring out the best in Simonsberg, who was far better than a 20+ length defeat might suggest.
Pioneer Pete (Jonjo & AJ O’Neill)
This is perhaps a much more obvious selection, but I thought PIONEER PETE produced a superb display to win the DragonBet ‘Welsh Champion’ Hurdle under Jonjo O’Neill Jr. and even when the handicapper has his say for this performance, I fully expect him to remain competitive at this level next time. Making every yard of the running, Pioneer Pete recorded the fastest winning time on the day, more than 3s quicker than the TPD expected time figure. Jumping fluently, he lost averages of 4% and 5.7% in the middle and latter parts of the race, the most fluent figures in the field at that stage and when asked to go and win his race between the final 2 flights, he did so readily with a race best late speed figure of 33.08 mph. He took 7 starts to get off the mark under rules, but he has now won 4 of his last 5 starts and made a mockery of his opening mark of 125. An educated guess would have him reassessed to a mark of 132-134 when the ratings are published next week, but that will surely not be enough to stop him on this evidence. Whilst we do need to acknowledge that there was an advantage to racing prominently on Friday, with 7 of the 8 winners having the word “prominent” in their in-running commentary, this looked to be a deep renewal of the Welsh Champion Hurdle and none of Pioneer Pete’s opponents seemed able to land a blow. A fast time and a clean sweep of our in-race speed metrics are normally a good pointer to an above average performance and there are surely some other high profile early season targets to be won with this 6-year-old son of Frontiersman.
Onefourmine (Jonjo & AJ O’Neill)
A second impressive winner for the O’Neill’s in as many days, ONEFOURMINE made virtually every yard of the running to score in Saturday’s McCarthy Construction Mares’ Handicap Hurdle over the extended 2 miles and 3 furlong trip. This mare has now won her last 2 starts and made light work of an opening mark of 115. As with any form analysis over this weekend at Chepstow, there was an advantage to racing prominently, but I really liked the way that Onefourmine rallied when she was headed at the 2nd last and race best 13.39s for the penultimate furlong quickly saw her return to the lead. In a tactical race with a finishing speed of 111%, it would have been easy for her to fold once she was joined in the straight, especially on her first run since April. Instead she knuckled down to hold on with a top speed figure of 34.9 mph, to go with her late speed of 30.6 mph, both of which ranked 1st of 9. A winner by over 4 lengths, she is likely to go up considerably when she is reassessed, but the manner with which she pulled away in the closing stages and the fact that she lengthened her stride to a peak of 23.48 ft (from a race average figure of 20.83 ft) would suggest she is considerably better than this level.
Walkinthemournes (Joe Tizzard)
A winner of a Point-to-Point in October 2025, this was a first run under rules for WALKINTHEMOURNES, a daughter of Walk in the Park who was a £60,000 purchase at the November Cheltenham sale. Keen in the early stages, she settled behind the early pace under Brendan Powell and was around 4 lengths behind the leader at halfway. As they came down the hill into the straight, she looked like she was being left behind and was 2.84s behind the leader with 3 furlongs to run. She could have finished tailed off, but instead she rallied nicely under Brendan Powell despite a slow leap over the 2nd last and the 13.40s that she recorded for the penultimate furlong was the fastest split in the field. That mistake over the 2nd last was a rare jumping error from a mare who recorded the most flint jumping display in the field, losing an average of just 6.8% of her speed over her obstacles. Over what is clearly an inadequate 2 mile 3 furlong trip, the fact that she rallied nicely in the closing stages gives me a plenty of confidence about this mare and once we start to see softer ground, I think she is likely to continue to improve. Having been behind the pace coming down the hill, she was at a disadvantage as they came into the straight and could have been forgiven if she had tailed off at that point, but the closing splits and a race best run-out speed of 29.13 mph would suggest that over 3 miles, there will be plenty of races to win with this mare.