COMMONWEALTH CUP TRIAL STAKES (THE PAVILION STAKES) (G3)

Ascot - 1st May 2026

A steadily run Commonwealth Cup Trial probably wasn’t on the bingo card for Ascot on Friday, but the fact that this field got to the halfway point before the pace began to lift is perhaps the key to explain the result. A winning time of 1:13.24 was exactly a second slower than the TPD expected time for the race, despite the quick ground. For some comparison, the 2-year-old race at the start of the card was within 0.5s of the expected time figure despite only having 3 runners and the Listed Paradise Stakes won by Jonquil was 0.66s slower than expected. Proportionally, that made this the slowest pattern race on the card and even just a cursory glance at the race replay would suggest that the early leaders weren’t going that fast. As a result, the fact that Coppull was the fastest horse to reach 30 mph when the stalls opened, taking 6.2s, he was ideally placed towards the head of the field when the pace began to lift. A top speed of 40.96 mph ranked 4th and the 2 horses to hit the frame, Midnight Tango and Division, both recorded faster top speed and late speed figures. 

Data recorded by TPD for Coppull, the winner of the Commonwealth Cup Trial at Ascot on Friday

Coppull recorded the longest average stride length in the field at 23.80 ft. That’s not necessarily that unusual for the straight course at Ascot where a horse with a clear run in front can lengthen easier than those in behind and I would point out that the difference of 1.23 ft between his race average figure and his peak race average (25.03 ft) is smaller than the differences recorded by the 3rd, 4th and 5th placed horses. He was the best horse on the day and probably wasn’t helped by the tiring Ghost Mode drifting towards him in the penultimate furlong. Once in front, his attitude couldn’t be faulted. However, whilst the ground conditions may well be similar in June, the race seems unlikely to develop in the same fashion. Last year’s Commonwealth Cup, won by Time for Sandals, had a finishing speed of 101.05% and that seems more likely than the 106.6% that Coppull recorded on Friday. He has excellent form in the book from 2025, including a 3rd placed finish behind Gstaad in the Coventry Stakes in June over this course and distance and in a division that is always open, there is every chance that Coppull will be close to a single figure price for the Commonwealth Cup next month. He has clearly shown that he handles the track and that he has both the early speed to get into a good position and the willing attitude needed for the battle in the final furlong, but I also have no doubt that he was ideally placed to win this trial.

In terms of the beaten horses, I thought that both Midnight Tango (2nd) and Division (3rd) ran fine races, with the latter finishing strongly on his first start in a group race by recording both the fastest final furlong in 11.35s and the fastest run-out speed at 37.29 mph. He seemed to have taken a significant step forward on his 2-year-old form and his connections must have left this race with plenty of optimism that they may well be able to reverse this form next time. As a Wise Approach supporter on the day, I knew my fate from halfway and whilst he did make an eye-catching move in the penultimate furlong as William Buick went in search of racing room to make his challenge on the far side, it was only a small positive from a relatively flat performance. The later races on the card did appear to suggest that the stands side was the place to be and so the fact that Wise Approach was within 0.1s of the times recorded by the winner for each of the final 3 furlong splits means that I will give him a pass for this race, without suggesting that he is likely to be certain to reverse the form. As for Brussels, I can’t be sure. Plenty of Aidan O’Briens runners have needed the run this year, most notably Montreal and New Zealand in the last week, so perhaps he will take a step forward from this. However, having broken on terms and run the fastest opening furlong in 15.44s, he was in the ideal position under Ryan Moore and simply failed to pick up. He was 0.78s slower than the winner over the final 3 furlongs and right now, he will need to take a very significant step forward to reverse this 4 length defeat.