Coral Challow Novices’ Hurdle (G1)
"No Drama This End"
This was a record 7th win in the Challow Hurdle for trainer Paul Nicholls and his 5th in the last 6 years. No Drama This End received that infamous Denman comparison after winning at Cheltenham earlier in the season and whilst I’m sure those comments were made in the heat of the moment, No Drama This End is at least going the right way and has now risen towards the top of the Novice hurdle ranks in the UK. A winning time of 5:00.52 was the fastest winning time in this contest since Thyme Hill in 2019 and the 5th fastest time since 2005, though the going conditions clearly played a significant part in that. A better comparison is the fact that No Drama This End ran a winning time that was 6.08s faster than the TPD expected time for a pattern race over this course and distance on ground described as Good to Soft. The earlier winners on the card over hurdles also ran times that were significantly quicker than the TPD expected time for Good to Soft (White Noise 8.5s, Minella Yoga 7.83s, Andashan 9.66s). If we take the times alone, this was probably closer to good ground, but if anything that adds another string to the bow for No Drama This End whose previous efforts have come with more cut in the ground.
No Drama This End put in a very solid jumping display, losing an average of just 3.2% of his speed over his hurdles and with the exception of a small error in the back straight, when he landed on all fours after failing to see a stride, this was a very nimble and accurate round of hurdling. The New Lion produced a similarly efficient set of jumping fluency data when he lost only 3.5% of his speed over his hurdles when winning this race 12-months ago for the Skeltons and the pair of them have a very similar low and accurate style of hurdling. That is probably the point at which the comparison between the 2 ends, as No Drama This End is a more aggressively ridden type. His presence, at an SP of 4/9, probably left some of the other connections with a dilemma to decide how to ride the race. Most of the jockeys seemed relatively content to allow Harry Cobden to dictate in front and the fact that the fastest furlongs in the race came once the field turned for home does suggest that the majority were happy to allow the favourite to dictate before the sprint for the line began. A late speed figure of 34.08 mph from No Drama This End was a race best figure and Harry Cobden was simply nudging him out to maintain his advantage after jumping the last, but both Klimt Madrik (33.90 mph) and Tiptoptim (33.99 mph) were not that far behind. I’m not that concerned about the run-out speed shown in the Infographic shown above (29.8 mph ranked 3rd) as Harry Cobden had eased up crossing the line whereas the other 2 were involved in a driving finish for 2nd place. His average stride frequency reached its race peak of 2.28 per second in the home straight and had he needed it, I’m sure that there was more in the tank as No Drama This End reached the final furlong.
Klimt Madrik had run the fastest final 2 furlong splits when winning a Novice hurdle over this course and distance in November (The same race won by The New Lion 12-months earlier) and Tiptoptim had won a point-to-point, a bumper and an introductory hurdle over this trip at Ludlow. The absence of Starzand made this an easier task, but No Drama This End could only beat the horses around him and if nothing else, we can largely say that the right horses have chased him home. With that in mind, the fact that neither of them were able to match him in the home straight would suggest that there are no reasons to doubt this form. If I was being picky, I’d be slightly concerned by the way he stepped to his left at his hurdles in the home straight, but it’s a very minor issue.
Paul Nicholls yard has hit form in recent days and at the time of writing he has reached a 30% strike rate in the last 14 days (9 winners from 30 runners). In his post race interview with Luke Harvey for Sky Sports Racing, he implied that the horse will now go straight to Cheltenham and that whilst entries will be made in both the Baring Bingham and the Albert Bartlett, there is perhaps a slight preference for the intermediate trip on the Wednesday. On the one hand he has proven himself on better ground over the intermediate trip, but does he really have the speed for a race over this distance? That’s a more interesting question. His top speed figure of 36.71 mph ranked 5th, but the race best figure, recorded for Montemares, was just 0.29 mph faster and in a steadily run race that shouldn’t really be a concern. I’m more interested in his late speed figure (34.08 mph). That was a “race best” figure and only Minella Yoga (34.68 mph) and Act of Innocence (34.18 mph) recorded a better figure on the card. They are both exciting 2-mile Novices’ and so having gotten close to them, in a race where he was a class apart and had to do all of his own work bodes well. His earlier successes came on soft ground at Cheltenham and Sandown in races with finishing speeds of 108% and 104% respectively. If the ground came up soft in March, then the intermediate trip would absolutely be the right race for him. However, I don’t think that either Klimt Madrik or Tiptoptim are likely to be considered as serious contenders for that race in March (they’re both available at 50/1 in the Ante Post markets at the time of writing). Using that as a working hypothesis, I have some doubts over the speed shown by No Drama This End and I’m not convinced that having a slightly faster late speed than those horses can be used as comprehensive proof that No Drama This End has the speed for this intermediate trip on better ground in Grade 1 company. Bravemansgame was an impressive winner of this race in 2020 but when he got to Cheltenham he lacked the speed to repel Bob Olinger in the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle. Both horses could be described as “Chasers in waiting” and for what it’s worth, I think No Drama This End is the faster of the pair (we don’t have a full data set from 2020 to use as a complete comparison) although that is largely opinion based. He may well prove me wrong in March, but I do have some doubts still about his speed and the data from this race and the way the track was riding at Newbury did not dispel those doubts entirely.
I have worked on the theory that the Champion Bumper form needed to be treated in reverse this season and so far, it’s proving to be the case. Idaho Sun (6th), Sortudo (7th), No Drama This End (9th), Kalypso’chance (11th) and Fortune de Mer (14th) were all inconvenienced by the uncharacteristically slow pace and have since shown their best form over hurdles. No Drama This End is not a slow horse and I don’t want to give that impression with this review, but there will be faster horses than the opposition that he faced at Newbury in that race in March. What I can say with some certainty is that he is an efficient jumper who finishes his races strongly. Given that he is now heading straight to the festival, there will be no more evidence to gather and as we can’t predict the likely going this far out, making both entries seems like a sensible plan. However, there is a lot of racing to take place between now and March, with the Lawlor’s of Naas hurdle the most obvious race in the days ahead for this division and I do feel that the market has slightly overreacted to the strength of this form by making No Drama This End such a clear favourite at this stage. He was the fastest horse in the Challow, but that doesn’t automatically mean he will be the fastest horse in a couple of months time at Cheltenham.