Curlin Florida Derby Presented By Hill 'n' Dale Farms At Xalapa - (G1)
When first looking at the early prices for this year’s Florida Derby, I was slightly surprised to see that there was very little margin between COMMANDMENT and CHIEF WALLABEE. The pair finished in that order in the G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park last month and when I wrote the review of that race 4-weeks ago, I was firmly of the opinion that Commandment was the best horse in the race and the worthy winner. He had a higher top speed figure than Chief Wallabee (39.73 mph) and ran the fastest final furlong in the field in 12.61s. It would be true to say that he was the beneficiary of a superb ride from Irad Ortiz Jr. who waited for the gaps to appear on the inside of the leader around the turn before asking his mount to quicken as they straightened for the judge. He is the son of G1 winning mare Sippican Harbor and his connections went to $500,000 to secure him, so it is perhaps not a surprise to see that he has proven himself to be a top-class performer, but having watched the Fountain of Youth stakes again with a fresh pair of eyes a month later, maybe there is a case to be made for the runner-up.
Commandment certainly drifted to his right in the final furlong and whilst at the time, I thought it didn’t affect the result, there is perhaps a case to be made that the less experienced Chief Wallabee was inconvenienced and had to adjust his stride in the final 50 yards. He certainly recorded a better run-out speed than the winner (33.38 mph) and his stride frequency data shows that although he was slowing down inside the final furlong, he was also within 3% of his race average in the closing stages at 2.21 strides per second. He beat the subsequent Tampa Bay Derby winner The Puma on his debut at Gulfstream Park in January and he has recorded the best run-out speed in the field on both occasions, so we can be fairly sure that he will see out the trip even if the Florida Derby is run at a stronger pace than his earlier races. I would still prefer Commandment, who appears to be in the “Sovereignty” mould, by which I mean that he gallops on and always seems to find a way to win, but I won’t entirely dismiss the chances of Bill Mott’s Colt.
There is also a chance that the pair of them come up short on Saturday. Todd Pletcher saddles the Holy Bull Stakes winner NEARLY and given that the subsequent Virginia Derby winner Incredibolt was last of 6 in that contest, there is a chance that his form is at least on a par with that of the other principles in the market. He recorded a top speed figure of 41.02 mph as he ran out a very comfortable winner on the day. Breaking quickly from stall 7, he got himself into a prominent position under John Velazquez with opening splits of 5.93, 11.40 and 11.51s. Once he saw off the other pace setter (Cannoneer) he traveled strongly into the straight before stretching away to win by over 5 lengths. The Holy Bull Stakes has the likes of Tiz The Law (2020) and White Abarrio (2022) on its recent roster of winners and the data from this year’s race would support the theory that Nearly will be capable of making his own mark in Grade 1 company. He has a longer expected stride length figure than both Commandment and Chief Wallabee, so there is certainly a case to be made that he will be the horse most likely to be suited by a strong pace and if the current prices were to be reflected in the race day market, he would have to be considered to be the value bet in this year’s Florida Derby.