The 157th Draftkings Travers Stakes (G1)
Saratoga - 29th August 2026
“I will hold to my belief that he is the best horse in this race and with a similar setup to his earlier victories, his long stride and strong stamina will always make him competitive. If he doesn’t run his race, then it becomes a much more open contest, but a morning line price of 5/2 will be very fair if it is still available at post time”.
This is the test that we have been waiting for. The moment where we will get to see how good the best of this year’s crop of 3-year-olds is and whether he is going to be capable of taking on his elders in the big races at the end of the year. I am talking of course about Golden Tempo, the winner of the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes and the horse who has achieved the most from this year’s Derby contenders. We haven’t seen Cherie DeVaux’s for 12 weeks and one thing that Total Performance Data cannot do is put a figure on what effect the bacterial infection that ruled him out of the Jim Dandy Stakes will have had. His track work has been good and there’s no doubt that his achievements in the Triple Crown races far outweigh those of his rivals. He had the longest stride in the field for both the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes, reaching peak average figures above 26 ft both times and he used that long stride to run down his opponents with race best late speed figures on both occasions. As long as he gets a reasonable early pace to run behind, which seems fairly likely on Saturday, then there are no reasons to think that he won’t be capable of doing so again.
I have included his winner’s data from the Belmont Stakes above because I think it is important to note that when it mattered in the closing stages of the race, Golden Tempo was clear of his rivals across our range of speed metrics. There were obvious excuses to be made for Renegade in the Derby, but not so in the Belmont Stakes, where he was slower than Golden Tempo in each of the final 5 furlong splits. His peak stride length was over 2 ft shorter and whilst he did get the better of Commandment in the Jim Dandy at the start of the month, the speed figures would suggest to me that the form was below that of the triple crown races. As we will see in a moment from our pre-race comparison, Renegade has the better top speed figures, but the issue is that he seems unable to sustain that speed for long periods and as a result, he will require a very “cute” ride if he is going to win over 10 furlongs. He got just that in the Jim Dandy, where a finishing speed of 101.7%, which is positively sedate for a top level dirt race, meant that he could use that burst of speed to run down Commandment in the closing stages. Having the likes of Napoleon Solo and possibly also Leading Change drawn low would suggest to me that this race will be run at a much faster early pace and that seems likely to stretch Renegade’s stamina to its limit. The early leader in the Jim Dandy (Chip Honcho) covered the first 5 furlongs in 59.94s (11.99 averages) and I think Renegade will probably need to move a little faster on Saturday. He can do that, but his stride data suggests that he has not yet proven that he can sustain that pace and if Golden Tempo comes alongside him in the closing stages, the result is likely to be the same unless the early pace is a very moderate one.
I have seen enough of the Kentucky Derby form to confirm in my mind that Golden Tempo is the best of the crop and if he is over the issue that kept him out of the Jim Dandy and he runs to the levels that he showed earlier in the year, I think he will confirm that form on Saturday evening. However, we have a couple of new form lines to explore in the Travers Stakes. I’ll start with Wathnan Racing and their unbeaten son of Gun Runner, Leading Change. I thought he was tough when holding off Our Moneyman to win the Indiana Derby in July. On just his 2nd start, he raced prominently throughout and despite not recording a race best split for any of the last 5 furlongs, he appeared to always be doing enough and a run-out speed of 34.6 mph, far above the expected average figure for a winner of that race from our database, would suggest that he still had something left to give when he crossed the line. Brad Cox’s 3-year-old may be light on experience, but having only made his debut in June, he is open to more improvement than most. Having Napoleon Solo drawn outside him may not be a bad thing as it will give him a target to track in the early stages. The question is whether the form of the Indiana Derby will stack up. The 4th placed Zihnal has won the G3 West Virginia Derby in the interim period and Leading Change recorded better speed metrics than he did throughout the race in Indianapolis. However, neither Zihnal or Our Moneyman have shown the same level of form that the likes of Golden Tempo have and both would be long priced outsiders in this field. Our Moneyman reached a peak average stride length of 24.96 ft in the Indiana Derby and whilst he is a nice horse, it will take a much bigger effort to repel Golden Tempo or Renegade. At a peak of nearly 26 ft, Leading Change could be capable and the fact that he maintained a constant stride frequency of 2.27 strides per second in the final half a mile last time would suggest that he will finish his race strongly. However, from a low draw he could run a career best and still finish 3rd and our data would suggest that his supporters are betting on his potential, rather than what he has actually achieved so far.
Leading Change has potential, but so does Sea Strike. This will be his first try in graded company and we can never be sure until a horse has actually proven themselves at this level, but everything about his victory in the Curlin Stakes and the data he produced would suggest to me that this colt is capable of making the grade. He dominated that race and finished 8 lengths ahead of Chief Wallabee with a stunning display that included a top speed figure of 40.3 mph and the fastest closing quarter of a mile (24.65s). He is a more compact colt than the likes of Golden Tempo, reaching a peak average stride length of 25.71 ft, but he galloped on relentlessly and his stride frequency reached a peak of 2.25 per second in the penultimate furlong. A finished speed of 98% would be slightly below par and points to only a fair early pace, but it was hard not to be impressed by the way he finished his race. As our pre-race summary shows, his average speed metrics will make him competitive with those who have already run at this level and whilst he does need to step up, I think this pace should suit Chad Brown’s son of Midshipman.
In normal circumstances, a horse who has flown through the field to win the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes in the manner that Golden Tempo did would be a short priced favourite for the Travers Stakes. I found myself wondering what price Cherie DeVaux’s charge would have been if he had won the Jim Dandy instead of missing the race with an issue. If you have read any of the content that I have written on US Racing for Total Performance Data in the last few months, you will be well aware of my admiration for Golden Tempo and I can’t desert him now. As I said at the start, I cannot put a number on what effect the issue with his lungs may have had, but until the data proves otherwise, I will hold to my belief that he is the best horse in this race and with a similar setup to his earlier victories, his long stride and strong stamina will always make him competitive. If he doesn’t run his race, then it becomes a much more open contest, but a morning line price of 5/2 about the dual Grade 1 winner will be very fair if it is still available at post time. Aside from Golden Tempo, I have seen a lot of Renegade, The Puma, Napoleon Solo and Ocelli to know that they are competitive at this level, without any of them leading me to think that they may be capable of further improvement. So if it is not to be for Golden Tempo, then perhaps Sea Strike is the one who will take a step forward and his data from the Curlin Stakes would suggest he is certainly capable of doing so.