Dunkin' Diana Stakes - Grade 1
Saratoga - 18th July 2026
Kathynmarissa certainly did things the hard way when adding a first Grade 1 success to her CV in Saturday’s Dunkin’ Diana Stakes at Saratoga. In a race run at a very sedate pace, where the leader took over 50s (Segesta 50.61s) to cover the opening half a mile, it was going to take a monumental effort from any horse in 6th place at the top of the home straight to win, but somehow Kathynmarissa and Jose Ortiz managed to get the job done. A $200,000 yearling by triple crown winner American Pharaoh, this was a first Grade 1 success on her 3rd attempt and a career best from Chad Brown’s filly, but there were some clues in her earlier form to suggest that she may well have been capable of winning on the turf at the very highest level. In 10 starts on the turf, she has won 4 times and hit the frame on a further 5 occasions. She got the better of the Breeders’ Cup winner Gezora in the Grade 3 Modesty Stakes at Churchill Downs in May, admittedly in receipt of weight, but she was comfortably on top in the closing stages with a race best final furlong and run-out speed. She failed to build on that when only 3rd in the New York Stakes in June, but she probably hit the front too soon on that occasion and having been beaten by less than 0.3s, it did at least confirm that she was capable of performing at this level as a 5-year-old.
She was ideally placed when they turned for home in the New York Stakes and having been on terms as they rounded the final bend in June, Jose Ortiz must have felt like he had won the race. However, whilst Kathymarissa did finish that race well, she was caught for speed by the battling winner (Portfolio Duration) and the Francis-Henri Graffard trained Cankoura. Lesson learned, it was no surprise to see Kathynmarissa given a much more patient ride in the Diana Stakes, but given that the runner-up enjoyed a very easy time of things on the front end and the first 4 recorded finishing speeds above 104%, it was no easy task to make up the ground in the final quarter of a mile. The key to getting his mount in front where it mattered was the fact that Jose Ortiz was able to rely on the winner’s long stride. She had reached peak average stride lengths above 26 ft in both the Modesty Stakes and the New York Stakes and once again recorded the longest stride figures in the field on Saturday, with an average of 24.72 ft throughout the contest. To add some context to that, the next longest average stride length figure in the field was only 23.66 ft (Portfolio Duration). An average stride length that is over a foot longer than any of your rivals will always give you a chance, but on the tight inner turf track at Saratoga, that can be a hindrance as much as it is an advantage. Kathynmarissa had to adjust her feet around the turns and when examined on a furlong by furlong basis, it is no surprise to see a drop of almost 5% between her peak stride frequency and averages around the turns. Having adjusted her feet, she was given a lot to do but once into the home straight, consecutive fastest furlongs of 11.47s, which coincided with a race peak stride length in the final furlong saw her run down Segesta to ultimately win going away.
The form with Portfolio Duration has now been reversed and I do think a case can be made that the daughter of Night of Thunder, also trained by Chad Brown, is best when able to lead. Segesta was sent forwards by Dylan Davis and was ideally placed. Whilst I don’t think she lost anything significant in defeat, it would also be fair to say that the race was entirely run to suit and she didn’t manage to get home. She dead-heated for the Wiley Stakes at Keeneland in April and is clearly a Grade 1 performer, but both her starts since have been run to suit and she has failed to convert from seemingly ideal positions at halfway. The front pair pulled clear and trying to hold off the closing speed from a filly with an average stride length almost 1.5 ft longer was a difficult task, but the daughter of Ghostzapper does appear to need to be delivered with a very cute ride and I can’t make a particularly obvious case for the form being overturned. The British interest in the race came from the Kevin Philipart de Foy trained Cathedral. She finished 4th for Amo Racing under Ricardo Jr Santana and that has probably covered the expenses of getting her to Saratoga, but she still has only a Lingfield maiden win on her CV. Having tracked the pace on the inside, she was perhaps slightly short of room into the home straight, but she was readily left behind when it mattered and has had her limitations exposed at this level once again.
At an average of 2.16 strides per second, Kathynmarissa’s stride frequency was below our expected average for a winner over this course and distance (2.22 sps) and from the position that she found herself in with a quarter of a mile to run, had she finished a fast-finishing 3rd or 4th then she could have been considered to have run her race and been inconvenienced by the track and the early pace. The fact that she was able to overcome those obstacles and win decisively can only be seen as a positive. For her trainer (Chad Brown) to train a 1,2,3 in a Grade 1 race is a superb achievement that needs to be applauded immensely. Kathynmarissa is the best of his 3 horses in my view and I’d be confident to say that she is the most likely of the trio to win another top level race this year. I like horses who win races when the data suggests they probably shouldn’t have, but there will always be the slight risk that the tight nature of the turf tracks will work against her long stride and so there may also be the odd occasions when she finishes well, but not well enough.