Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill “n” Dale Farms at Xalapa (G1)
“I like him, there’s a lot to like and there is no reason to think that he won’t improve again”. Those were the exact words that I wrote about Commandment when he won the Fountain of Youth Stakes in February and yet on Saturday evening I was keen to take him on. We will come to Nearly in a moment, but first we should recognise the horse who would now look to be the most likely winner of the Road to the Kentucky Derby. COMMANDMENT had the race run to suit to a certain degree. The early battle for the lead between Nearly and Wayne’s Law did give him something to aim at, but the smaller field and the lack of a confirmed front runner meant that this race was not the stamina test that it has been at times in the past. Commandment recorded a finishing speed of 100.75%, which by the usual standards of top-class dirt racing in the US is positively sedate. For comparison purposes, he recorded a finishing speed of 96.48% when winning the Fountain of Youth Stakes at the end of February. A winning time of 1:49.99 meant that this year’s race ranked 8th of the last 10 renewals, although the 2 horses to record a slower time (Tiz the Law and White Abarrio) went on to be Grade 1 performers at the highest level. What this race did teach us is that Commandment can be versatile. When he won the Fountain of Youth Stakes, I said that there would be inevitable comparisons made between himself and Sovereignty, who won the same race 12. months earlier. Ironically, Sovereignty’s only defeat in 2025 came when he was beaten by Tappan Street in the Florida Derby, but the comparison at the time made sense, but Commandment showed himself to be much more than just a relentless galloper as he quickened to close on the leaders in the home straight at Gulfstream on Saturday.
Having been last of the 6 runner field at the halfway point, Flavien Prat was forced to come around the field as they began to swing for home and still had work to do as they reached the furlong pole. This wasn’t a strong pace at any stage. The 12.05s that Commandment recorded in the penultimate furlong was the fastest split of any horse in the entire race and the fact that the first 5 runners were covered by less than 2 lengths at the furlong pole is testament to how sedate the gallop had been. In the Fountain of Youth Stakes, Commandment recorded furlong splits of 11.50 and 11.90s in the opening quarter of a mile. With that in mind, the fact that Commandment was able to cover more ground around the turn and get himself on terms is testament to the ability that he possesses. A winning margin of 0.01s may be seen as a slightly below par result by some, but I would argue that the fact he was able to close from the rear of the field after such a slow pace would make this a much more remarkable result than the winning margin suggests. I want to make it clear that I don’t consider Commandment to be a better horse than Sovereignty (yet). If you make a comment like that in a blog it can cause a social media storm and that is not my point. The Florida Derby showed us a completely different side to Brad Cox’s charge. He ground out a victory in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, whereas this was a much more polished performance where he traveled behind a sedate pace before quickening to close on his rivals. At 38.19 mph, he had the slowest top speed figure in the field, but he finishes his races really strongly and this was the 4th race in a row where he has recorded the best late speed figure in the field. The Kentucky Derby is much more likely to resemble the Fountain of Youth Stakes for pace, but he has shown himself to be tactically versatile and that can only be seen as a good thing.
If there was a disappointment in the race, it was Nearly. He had looked to be a very strong traveller when winning the Holy Bull Stakes in January and having largely had the run of the race in front, his finishing effort can only really be described as below par. Perhaps the slow pace didn’t suit. The Holy Bull Stakes had a finishing speed of 89% and the 2 races were run at entirely different pace, but having run the final quarter of a mile in 25.36s, over a second slower than the winner, Nearly will need to produce an incredible turn around if he is to reverse this form. He was my pick for the race on Saturday and at halfway I was very happy with the position that he found himself in. I can’t find any obvious excuse for this performance and he simply wasn’t good enough. In the future, with a better pace to tow him into the race, I am sure that he will prove himself to be capable of better than this, but on his first try in grade 1 company, he was found wanting.
Commandment has confirmed the form with Chief Wallabee from last time, despite the market thinking otherwise and having won 3 of the 4 legs in the Florida series on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, he has earned his place in the first of the Triple Crown races in May. He finds a way to win, regardless of how the race is run and that is the sign of a Champion. Assuming that the draw is kind and he gets a chance to show what he can do at Churchill Downs, it will take a very good horse to beat him.