Howden Long Walk Hurdle (G1)
"impose Toi"
On Saturday morning JP McManus looked to have a relatively strong hold on the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot and so it proved, even if the market went with Honesty Policy over the winner Impose Toi. The winner is developing into one of the stories of the season and he has quickly taken the step from handicap company into graded races this autumn. Visually this was impressive, Nico De Boinville seemed confident throughout the race and once they swung for home, the eye was naturally drawn to the strong travelling Impose Toi. He’s beaten Strong Leader twice now, both in very similar circumstances and off level weights, there is no reason to think that form can be reversed. That makes Impose Toi the best of the Stayers’ hurdle division in the UK and the data would entirely support that theory.
I’ll start with the jumping scores. Impose Toi lost an average of 5.2% of his speed over his obstacles, which ranked him 2nd of the 8 runners that completed the course (3rd overall). Perhaps most significantly, his jumping fluency held together in the latter stages of the race, where he lost just 4.8% of his speed compared to the 6.5% (Strong Leader) and 7.6% (Honesty Policy) lost by the 2 horses that chased him home. The jump at the last sealed the race as Impose Toi loomed alongside Strong Leader, who jumped to his right over the final flight, allowing Nico de Boinville to keep his mount moving forwards as he ran the final quarter of a mile in 28.04s, the fastest closing quarter in the field. The race had a finishing speed of 104% and so this wasn’t a complete pace collapse, but plenty of the runners in behind were beaten turning for home and Impose Toi was still travelling on the bridle as he made his ground. Stride frequency averages can be a good pointer to stamina and Impose Toi did not reach his race peak average until the 2nd furlong (2.10 average per second). For each of the final 4 furlongs, his Stride Frequency was above his race average figure of 2.01 per second and that point, along with a run-out speed of 29.82 mph would suggest that there was something left in the tank had it been needed. Whilst a first glance at those run-out speeds might suggest that the 2nd and 3rd were coming back at him, I think that it is important to recognise that Nico de Boinville had eased up to celebrate at the line, whereas Strong Leader and Honesty Policy were involved in a driving finish for 2nd place and as a result, they carried more speed past the line.
If I am being slightly “picky” then I would need to point out that he has beaten the same horse twice, albeit with a slight swing at the weights on Saturday. I’d also have to add that Strong Leader is a better horse on a flat track like Newbury than he is on a more undulating track like Ascot. However, Olly Murphy’s charge had the run of the race and is largely consistent so we can use Strong Leader to judge this form. If he has run his race, which seems likely, then Impose Toi has made up a significant amount of ground on him from the rear and has won going away despite the 6 lb swing. If they meet again, Impose Toi will beat him again. That seems a simple assumption. Honesty Policy is perhaps the more likely of the pair to get closer. This was his first start since the Spring and just his 2nd over this trip. He appeared to gut a flat spot in the straight before running on again to record the fastest final furlong (14.02s) and run-out speed (31.61 mph) in the race. Impose Toi appeared to have him covered, but if he takes a step forward from this he should improve, especially with a longer finish like Cheltenham in his favour and the market confidence behind him on his first start in open company would suggest that his connections feel that he is capable of doing so.
It’s a very small point and I almost put it in brackets, but there is one other note that I made from this race and that’s the performance of Potters Charm. He traveled nicely into the race under Sam Twiston-Davies and recorded a faster top speed figure (35.54 mph) than the 3 horses that finished ahead of him. However, he was 1.61s slower than the winner over the final quarter of a mile and his average stride length dropped from 6.88m to 6.35m over the final half a mile. It was a similar story when he finished 3rd here in November behind Wodhooh. There may be an issue, but the November race had a finishing speed of 100.7% and it seems that his stamina is being tested and he is coming up short. He has an official rating of 145 and I have my eye on him as a horse who may find a drop in trip into handicap company more to his liking.
Impose Toi travels strongly, he has confirmed his stamina for the trip and he now has a Grade 1 win on his CV. All of that leads to the logical conclusion that he should be at the head of the market for the Stayers hurdle in March. A winning time of 5:58.59 made this the fastest winning time in this contest since Unowhatimeanharry won in 2016 on ground described as Good to Soft. It’s hard to make exact time comparisons from one year to the next, so perhaps a better summary is that the winning time was 3.38s faster than the TPD expected time for the grade with the course running on Good to Soft conditions, and it may well have been slightly softer.
Everything points to this being a top class performance from Impose Toi. The time, the closing sectionals, his jumping score and the horses that chased him all support the strength of the form. The race at Cheltenham will be a different test and it can be much harder to deliver a horse to finish in this manner on the New Course, but if he matches Saturday’s level of form, then there is every chance that he will be in the mix when jumping the final flight in March.