Howden Noel Novices’ Chase (G2)
"Steel Ally"
The Long Walk Hurdle may well be the feature race of this 2 day meeting at Ascot but those horses will have to produce an extremely good performance on Saturday if they are going to eclipse the set of numbers produced by Steel Ally on Friday afternoon. Sam Thomas’ charge lit up Friday’s card with a fantastic display of jumping to win this Grade 2 contest by 9 lengths under Dylan Johnston. It’s very hard to find any fault in the performance of this son of Doctor Dino, who readily dispatched his rivals in the Ascot straight despite having to concede 3 lbs to the rest of the field and he has certainly pushed himself into the Arkle picture on the back of this performance. Here’s what the data can tell us;


I will start with the time. A winning time of 4:48.10 meant that this race was run in a time 7.19s faster than the expected time for a Class 1 race over this course and distance on soft ground. The early pace set by Personal Ambition, who reached the 15 furlong pole in under 1:02 and that has helped to ensure that there was at least an even gallop throughout, but Steel Ally moved forward with a mile to run and he had to work very hard to control the race from that point. The metrics above tell their own story. Steel Ally had the best top speed, the best late speed and a run-out speed that was 4.63 mph or 18.8% quicker than the runner-up and it did appear from the way that he finished the race that there was more to come if needed. He finished his race well on his Chase debut at Carlisle last month, running the final quarter of a mile in 30.44s, almost a second faster than the runner-up Unexpected Party, but this was a definite improvement on that effort. I would like to highlight his key strength, his jumping. The jumping fluency data from TPD shows that Steel Ally produced the most efficient jumping g display in the field, losing an average of just 8.9% of his speed over his fences. Perhaps more significantly, his jumping improved once he was put into a prominent position and he recorded race best figures of 8.7% in the middle part of the race and 9.4% in the latter stages. That final figure was considerably better than the 11.2% and 11.4% recorded by the 2nd and 3rd and having used the rail to keep him going, Dylan Johnston had very little to be concerned about in the closing stages as he pulled further and further clear.
Does this mean he should be an Arkle contender? Absolutely. He should be in those conversations. It’s hard to make comparisons with Lulamba from last week at Sandown and even harder to compare the 2 to the Supreme winner Kopek des Bordes. However, what we can say is that Steel Ally has readily dispatched a field with chasing experience and despite the fact that the beaten favourite No Questions Asked looked to be coming with a winning challenge around the turn, Steel Ally quickly pulled clear of him. The runner-up missed the 2nd last fence and the fact that Push the Button was able to hold off No Questions Asked despite that error does raise a slight question mark about the way the favourite finished the race. However, there was such a significant margin between Steel Ally and the rest, a gap over 2.26s at the line, that I think any doubts over the strength of the form can largely be dispelled. He is an experienced 7-year-old who has now won both starts over fences and whilst the statistics might suggest that it is hard for an 8-year-old to win a Grade 1 Novice chase at the festivals, Steel Ally does at least have the data to back up the theory that he will be a player in those races later in the season.