Iroquois Stakes - Grade 3
Churchill Downs - 12th September 2026
The Road to the Kentucky Derby 2027 got underway on Saturday afternoon with the Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs. This race is perhaps more significant as part of the “Win and You’re In” series for the Breeders’ Cup than it is for the Kentucky Derby itself, but it does at least start the process of getting the mind ready for the 3-year-old crop next year. This year’s race was won by Salahudin, who made it 3 wins from 3 career starts to give Bob Baffert a first win in this race since he was successful with Exploit in 1998. Sent off as a short-priced favourite, the form book would suggest that he has carried his form from Ellis Park and proven to be the best 2-year-old in the field, but there are one or two minor points from the data that might offer an alternative view.
Salahudin recorded a winning time of 1:36.54 which gave him an average speed of 37.3 mph. That exactly matched the TPD expected average figure for a winner of this race and made the 2026 renewal of the Iroquois slightly quicker than the 2025 renewal won by Spice Runner (0.05s). Salahudin was settled behind the pace by Jose Ortiz before being brought 4 wide to make his challenge around the final turn. He was the fastest horse in the field for the 4th, 5th and 6th furlongs and looked likely to clear away and win with relative ease when they straightened for home. However, the runner-up (He Is No Lie) battled well when the pair began to draw off from the rest and was lunging late with a better time for the final furlong. In reality, our stride frequency data would suggest that the pair of them were reaching for the line in a race run with a finishing speed of 94%. He Is No Lie had won a Santa Anita maiden in May over the minimum trip before acquitting himself well in a pair of stakes races at Churchill Downs and then Del Mar, but he ran such a strange race in the Iroquois that it’s hard to get a handle on the strength of this form. The fact that he was headed and then rallied in the closing stages might suggest that he was either idling in front or perhaps in need of a different ride. He battled on well to finish 2nd, but I would also highlight the fact that the 4th placed Real Goodbar was slightly unlucky to have his racing room close in front of him in the home straight at a time when he appeared to be coming with a serious challenge.
Salahudin has done very little wrong so far and this long striding son of Uncle Mo has won all 3 starts for Bob Baffert and having recorded a race best run-out speed figure, he clearly stays the 1 mile trip with ease. Post race, Bob Baffert said “It’s been a perfect progression so far to get his career started. He’s continued to mature with each start.” (Source: Daily Racing Form). Having run one of the slowest opening furlong splits (12.66s) he did well to get back into the race, but the Iroquois was not the fastest 2-year-old race on the card and it is perhaps worth noting that Coach Pope (Kenny McPeek) ran a much faster time when winning the maiden earlier on the card over the same course and distance. Salahudin has many of the physical attributes that we look for with the best 3-year-old contenders and one thing stands out above all else with this colt, his average stride length. At an average of 26.67 ft, Salahudin is one of the longest striding 2-year-olds that we have seen. It’s so long that I asked our data team to double check the figures. He also recorded figures of 26.60 ft and 26.81 ft in his 2 starts at Ellis Park. For such a long striding horse to record top speed figures and win races like the Iroquois Stakes as a juvenile is quite remarkable. I couldn’t find a 2-year-old with a longer stride length at this stage of their career in the TPD database. There are some nagging doubts about the strength of this form and so the only thing that I can do with the form from this year’s Iroquois Stakes is put a question mark next to it, but that stride length figure makes this race much more interesting than it might otherwise have been. The variations in the closing sectional times from the principles and the overall time when compared to the other 2-year-olds on the card mean that I can’t get overly excited by the form and at a time when we seem to be seeing outstanding 2-year-old performances every week, this felt slightly underwhelming, but Salahudin doesn’t fit the profile of a 2-year-old stakes winner. That makes Bob Baffert’s charge a horse to note.