LADBROKES ORMONDE STAKES (G3)
Chester - 7th May 2026
JAN BRUEGHEL does not fit the profile of a middle distance winner at Chester. Our data showed that the average stride length of the winner of this race would be 23.8 ft at a stride frequency average of 2.17 strides per second. On Thursday, Jan Brueghel recorded an average stride length of 25.19 ft, 5.8% above the expected average figure, at an average frequency of 2.13 strides per second. Now, you probably didn’t need the stride data to tell you that Jan Brueghel wasn’t suited to the track at Chester, but much like his stablemate Benvenuto Cellini the day before (26.07 ft), the fact that he was able to win with such authority can only be seen as a positive. This race did set up perfectly for a horse of his size and scope to win. Illinois set a good early pace and reached the mile pole in 1:08.31. That led to a race where the winner and the runner-up (Mount Atlas) recorded finishing speeds of 103% and it is no coincidence that the 2 horses with the longest average stride lengths in the field finished 1st and 2nd. Whilst this was a good run from Mount Atlas, I would point to the fact that he was given a superb ride by Oisin Murphy, whose aim was to give his mount time and allow him to finish strongly. Ryan Moore had to work hard to get Jan Brueghel to the front, but once there, his mount readily picked up, especially once into the straight. The winner was the fastest horse for 4 of the final 5 furlongs of the contest and his average stride length reached its peak average of 26.05 ft inside the final furlong.
This was Jan Brueghel’s first start since July when he was soundly beaten by Calandagan at Ascot and so after an absence of 285 days, he would be entitled to improve significantly for this run. The cheekpieces which were deployed at Ascot were removed for this return and given how much he sweated up and was keen at the start of the Ascot race, they may not return. The Stewards report on the day also noted that he “stepped quickly away from the whip which caused Rebel’s Romance to need to check off of his heels”. It was found to be accidental, but it does suggest that Ascot wasn’t his true running and he had been absent ever since. To be fair, he was reported to be sweating beforehand in the Coronation Cup at Epsom too, but the front running tactics that worked that day did not work at Ascot. After this run, it will be interesting to see what his connections choose to do at Epsom next time. He beat Calandagan last season. That is the best performance of his career and the runner-up has done plenty since to advertise how good that form was. I’d have to be clear that I feel Calandagan has improved significantly since then and if you read this blog or my own pages, I have made clear on many occasions my view that he is the best racehorse on the planet. However, for the first time in a long while I looked at both the performance of Jan Brueghel and the subsequent data from TPD after the race and thought, there is a scenario whereby this horse could get the better of Calandagan. It’s a small doubt and I would still make Francis-Henri Graffard’s Star the more likely winner if they both line up, but Jan Brueghel should not have won at Chester and he did, with some degree of authority too. If he improves, which seems likely, his performances here and at Epsom last season would suggest that he is the horse that is most likely to knock the crown from Calandagan’s head.
