Midnite Winter Derby Stakes (G3)
The Winter Derby returned to Lingfield for the first time since 2023 and that has probably had a bigger influence on the result than may first be conceived. The tighter bends and shorter home straight at Lingfield meant that this race developed into much more of a test of speed than the stamina test presented by the longer run-in at Southwell. This turned into a fantastic contest to watch as all 5 horses came into the home straight with some sort of chance and they were spread across the track with 300m to run. This was a speed test. All 5 runners recorded a finishing speed above 110% and all of them also clocked sub 22.5s for the final quarter of a mile. With that in mind, it is perhaps slightly surprising to see that the horse with the lowest average stride frequency figure (2.18 per second) came out on top. In fact, having been last as they entered the final furlong, Sky Safari produced an exceptional finishing effort to come out on top under Daniel Muscutt after being forced widest of all to make her challenge.
James Fanshawe is enjoying a decent run at form at present with 3 winners from 6 runners in the last 14 days (50%) at the time of writing. Ironically, Sky Safari had come up short in the Winter Oaks when she was run down by the fast finishing Morrophore despite recording a rapid 10.73s for the penultimate furlong. That was her only defeat in 7 starts on the All-Weather and her connections clearly decided that she had hit the front too soon on that occasion, switching tactics to make sure she was the last to get a run on Saturday. However, with such a sedate early pace set by Ryan Moore aboard Nebras, who took 28.69s to cover the first quarter of a mile, there was a danger that she would struggle to get herself on terms with a field that had plenty of energy left in the closing stages. All 5 runners quickened into the home straight, but it was a sustained burst of speed from Sky Safari, who clocked 10.96s for the final furlong once she got into top stride. At 24.67 ft, she had the longest average stride length in the field, despite being the only filly in the race and that helped her to record a late speed of 40.97 mph, which was just 0.03 mph slower than the late speed figure recorded by Diligent Harry in the Listed Midnite Hever Sprint Stakes earlier on the card over the minimum trip. She is an exceptionally fast filly and whilst the track at Lingfield does favour a test of speed, she has produced top speed figures and closing sectionals that really don’t line up with such a scopey set of stride data. Normally I would want to exercise some caution with Lingfield form going into All-Weather Finals Day at Newcastle. The 2 tracks are such different tests and the long straight and the climb up the hill at Newcastle can present such a different test that the horses with form at Lingfield can struggle to last home. However, I’d have to make an exception to that rule for Sky Safari, who would appear to have the perfect set of attributes for a stalking ride at Newcastle and given that she also won over the straight 7 furlongs at Yarmouth, the long straight may not be that much of an inconvenience.
There aren’t really any excuses for the beaten horses, they were simply beaten by the faster horse. Nebras led in the early stages before Boiling Point injected some pace in the back straight, but both had a clear run in the straight and simply couldn’t find the necessary speed. Chancellor was sent off at 4/6 but his top speed of 41.67 mph wasn’t enough to repel the late surge from Sky Safari. Military Academy was 2nd in this race last season behind Royal Champion at Southwell and he was perhaps slightly unlucky. He made his challenge along the inside of the course, which isn’t really the place to be at Lingfield and despite that, he recorded the fastest individual furlong in the field when running 10.95s for the penultimate split. This was a noticeable return to form to build on his 2nd placed finish behind Survie in the trial for this race last month and there are some positive signs to take from his performance for Jane Chapple-Hyam. His final furlong was just 0.06s slower than the winner and had he raced wider in the straight, he may well have finished at least 2nd. He won 3 of his first 4 starts and is now 0-11 since, but he has been very highly tried and looks to be slowly returning to his earlier form after 3 solid starts for his new yard. There should be a race at Listed or Group 3 level for him if he continues to show these signs of recovery.
It feels like the last few days have revolved around the All-Weather. Friday night’s race is clearly the headline maker, but those headlines aren’t really a reflection on the All-Weather season and Sky Safari’s performance to win the Winter Derby shouldn’t be underestimated. She is the first filly since Parasol (2003) to win this race and given that she began life in handicaps on a mark of 73, the job that James Fanshawe has done to get her to win a race like this is remarkable.
