Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes
"In Honour of Ian Balding"
Newbury - 19th September
“For various different reasons, each of these 2-year-olds are worthy of some column inches and I could find reasons to be positive about all of them from our data. There will be a lot of focus on the juveniles in the next few weeks, but this year’s Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury looks to be a very solid piece of form and I will be very surprised if it doesn’t prove to be worth following“.
There haven’t been too many occasions when the Mill Reef Stakes has been run on ground described as Good to Firm. In fact you have to go back to Pierre Lapin’s victory in 2019 to find the previous occasion and that was the first time the ground was that quick since Moohaajim won in 2012. A winning time of 1:10.61 from NABATI compares well with both of them (Pierre Lapin 1:10.90, Moohaajim 1:11.19) and came in at 0.50s quicker than the TPD expected time figure for the grade, which would suggest, along with the other times on the straight course at Newbury on Saturday, that the the Good to Firm description was accurate. That time figure and going description, coupled with a finishing speed of 100.8% from the pace-setting Joilvette (2nd) allowed for a very fair set of circumstances where each of these 2-year-olds had their chance if they were good enough. If we simply take the bare form into account, then a 3 lb swing at the weights for a neck defeat in the Rose Bowl Stakes here in July ought to have been enough for Nabati to reverse the form with the beaten favourite Arapaho Gold. There is very little between the pair based on their 2 meetings in the Newbury straight this season and once the winner is reassessed next week, the handicapper is likely to come to a very similar conclusion, but is that right based on the data?
I’m taking a very positive approach to this form. The time was good, the pace was even, the right horses came to the fore in the closing stages and there are reasons to think that each of the horses to hit the frame might have won. Nabati has been beaten twice, but both of those defeats have come in races where he has been too far back and to have turned out again just 8 days after his defeat in the Flying Scotsman Stakes at Doncaster speaks volumes about his temperament and character. William Buick was perhaps slightly further back than ideal in this race too, but Nabati rallied strongly and came home with a race best late speed figure of 38.6 mph over the final 2 furlongs. His in-race metrics were above our expected average figures for the course and distance and his 4th furlong split of 10.70s was the fastest split of any horse in the contest. Having made his debut on the 2nd July at Yarmouth, at cramped odds of 2/9, this Night of Thunder colt has come a long way in a relatively short period of time and having worked hard to get himself on terms, there is no reason to think that he wasn’t the best horse on the day, even if the margins between the front 3 are relatively small. William Buick’s post-race interview with Sky Sports Racing implied that they had planned to ride him more positively on Saturday, but a slow start where he took 5.8s to reach 30 mph when the stalls opened meant that he was forced to come from further back. At 24.12 ft, he is a more compact colt than Arapaho Gold, but he has a consistent stride with a variance of just 0.59 ft (2.4%) and an average stride frequency of 2.48 per second. With stride metrics like those, this was the ideal set up for Nabati with an even gallop a room to make his challenge and unlike at Doncaster, he was on the right part of the track to make his challenge this time. He holds an entry in the Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket next week, though a 3rd run in the space of 16 days seems unlikely, but he is a solid horse to assess this form around and when the right circumstances presented themselves, Charlie Appleby’s colt had the class and ability to take advantage of them and he does appear to have at least matched the levels reached by Arapaho Gold this season.
I’ve included our post-race summary graphic above because I think it is important to recognise the minimal difference between some of the metrics that the main contenders recorded. Jolivette was clearly the fastest horse into stride, clocking a time of 25.28s for the opening half a mile. At an average stride length of 23.17 ft (7.06 m), she was the smallest horse in the field and so to have made the running against the boys and held on for so long in an evenly run race, there is a definitely a case to be for upgrading her performance, especially as a race best run-out speed of 34.67 mph would suggest that she did have something left at the finish. Andrew Balding’s filly has run in the right races this season and her 3rd placed finish behind Libertango in the Lowther Stakes at York in August gives this form a very solid look. She is by Wootton Bassett and a half-sister to Jonquil and her pedigree would suggest that the 7 furlong trip is the most likely to suit, but I do wonder if going around a bend might help? She has plenty of speed, clocking an impressive top speed of 41.8 mph on Saturday, but her dam was a winner on the All-Weather at Lingfield and with such a high stride frequency figure and a compact stride, a turning track may bring out more improvement in Jolivette. As a juvenile filly running in stakes company, there are very few options other than to run on straight courses, but if she fills out over the winter, those options will begin to open up, especially if she stays a mile and I have added her to my notes for those specific circumstances because her stride data would suggest that she may improve for them.
Now we come to Arapaho Gold. As a gelding, the Mill Reef was the most obvious target for him as he isn’t eligible for some of the 2-year-old races at Newmarket in the next few weeks, but after 4 consecutive victories, Michael Dods charge still set a very high standard coming into the Mill Reef and even though he has now been beaten, I think he still leaves Newbury with his lofty reputation in tact. Hanging his head slightly to the right in the early stages may not have helped, but the way he galloped on at the finish might also suggest that he is worth trying over a longer trip now. At an average of 25.36 ft, Arapaho Gold had the longest stride length figure in the field and that stretched out to an impressive 26.55 ft at its peak. A good even pace and a straight course was clearly in his favour and his final 6 furlong splits all ranked in the top 4, but he reached his peak in the middle part of the race and the 11.97s that he recorded for the final furlong was the only time in the contest at which he ran a race best split. His victory in the Gimcrack at York has worked out very well in the interim period and although he has lost his unbeaten record, that seems slightly irrelevant given the way that he finished this race. When a 2-year-old runs up a sequence like Arapaho Gold has, there is always the thought process that they are precocious and as such, the competition are likely to catch up with them at some point towards the end of the season. Nabati appears to have done that, but given his size, it could also be argued that Arapaho Gold has been winning races at a time when he might have been expected not to. With such a long stride, I think he would still be of interest as a possible improver if given the chance to explore the 7 furlong trip.
As you can probably tell from the length of this review, I really like this year’s Mill Reef Stakes as a piece of form and I could go on. I thought Revels ran a nice race given that he was slightly keen in the early stages and finishing within 0.2s of the winner would suggest that an official rating of 90 underestimates Karl Burke’s son of Lope de Vega. I could also add that although Cut A Dash couldn’t get himself on terms, he finished his race well and only the winner managed to run a faster penultimate furlong than the 11.16s that Richard Hannon’s 2-year-old clocked and that followed a race best 10.83s for the 3rd split. For various different reasons, each of these 2-year-olds are worthy of some column inches and I could find reasons to be positive about all of them from our data. There will be a lot of focus on the juveniles in the next few weeks, but this year’s Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury looks to be a very solid piece of form and I will be very surprised if it doesn’t prove to be worth following.