Bob Baffert won the 10th San Felipe Stakes of his career on Saturday evening at Santa Anita, but not with the horse that the market expected. Brant was the talking horse from the Baffert barn coming into the race and he was supported into 2.25 favouritism at post time, but as his chance faded around the home turn it was the lightly raced Potente who came home with a rattle to win by a head. A winner on debut over 6 furlongs at Santa Anita at the end of January, this son of Into Mischief has propelled himself into the Kentucky Derby picture after Saturday evening’s performance over a mile and when we look at his data, there really is no reason to think that there was any element of luck about this result. 

The 2 market leaders did take each other on from the start, with Brant getting the better of So Happy in the early battle to hold the rail, but the pair of them reached the 6 furlong pole in 28.65s and 28.67s respectively, which helped to ensure that this race was run in a fast time with a finishing speed of 92% for the winner. It’s possible that these early exertions may have left their mark on Brant, but given that his furlong splits and average stride frequency figures began to drop from halfway, despite the fact that the pace slackened at the end of the back straight and I do think we need to take the view that he ran well below his best and certainly below the form that he had shown when chasing home Ted Noffey in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in October. So Happy did box on to finish 3rd, finishing 0.8s ahead of Brant, but he was very one paced in the closing stages and having been given a more patient ride when winning the San Vicente Stakes in January, his connections may now need to revert to those tactics instead.

That’s enough dwelling on the beaten favourites and it is time to heap some praise on the winner. Juan Hernandez was keen to give his mount a patient ride, despite the fact that Potente took just 6.12s to reach the first pole (ranked 2nd). Sitting in the box seat throughout, he was always within 2 lengths of the leader and was never more than 0.36s behind the front runner as they passed each of the furlong poles. Once brought through to make his challenge, Potente had the advantage of having the eventual runner-up Robusta to use as a target, but Bob Baffert’s charge ran the fastest final 2 furlong splits in 12.79 and 13.17s as he galloped through the line with a race best run-out speed of 32.95 mph. There is perhaps a sense that Robusta did too much too soon and he definitely tired given that his average stride frequency dropped from a race average figure of 2.27 per second to just 2.19 inside the final furlong. The application of the blinkers have clearly helped Robusta to finish his race and he took a significant step forward from his latest start when 6th in the Robert B Lewis Stakes. However, Potente was the faster horse over the final 3 furlongs and if anything, an additional furlong would probably have increased the winning margin.

The winning time of 1:42.92 was slower than Bob Baffert’s most recent winners of this race, Journalism (2025) and Life is Good (2021), but both of those horses proved to be Grade 1 performers and getting within a second of their time figures on just his 2nd start was an impressive performance from Potente. Having cost $2.4m as a yearlong, Potente has the back story to suggest that he might be a Kentucky Derby Contender and having earned 50 points for winning this race, he has all but guaranteed his place in the 20 runner field at Churchill Downs in May. Juan Hernandez’s post race comments implied that he felt his mount was a “big horse who took his time to get going”, but that should mean that he will be doing his best work at the end of the race and it’s not impossible to think that he could be staying on well in the closing stages to play a hand in the finish. Bob Baffert said he felt that “ the pace on Saturday was likely to be “hot,” liking Potente’s chances of picking up the pieces if the leading contenders tired themselves out early” and so it proved. He also added that he felt Brant was “ one piece of work short of being ready” but that “ He was trying. He got tired. I’m disappointed in Brant. I thought he would hang in there a little bit. We’ll have to regroup”.

Bob Baffert went into Saturday’s race with what looked to be a leading contender for the Kentucky Derby and he must be waking up on Sunday morning with a similar opinion, although it is perhaps not the horse that he would have imagined. This year’s race is wide open, but Potente has thrown his hat into the ring and given the steep upward curve of improvement that he appears to be on, he cannot be ruled out.