Santa Anita Derby (G1)
Bob Baffert has a very good record in the Santa Anita Derby with 9 wins, but he hasn’t landed the prize since Roadster won under Mike Smith in 2019. That could all change this year though as he would appear to have the leading contender. Several of the California form lines are merging together on Saturday evening, but there is no doubt that the form of POTENTE leads the way. When he won the San Felipe Stakes, I wrote that “he has thrown his hat into the ring (for the Kentucky Derby) and given the steep upward curve of improvement that he appears to be on, he cannot be ruled out”. Well, if that’s true, then he really should win the Santa Anita Derby on Saturday evening. He got a perfect ride from Juan Hernandez, sitting behind the strong early pace before being delivered last, timing his run to perfection with the fastest final 2 furlong splits in the field and a race best run-out speed of 32.95 mph. The runner-up Robusta will reoppose him on Saturday and there is perhaps a case to be made that he was committed too soon by Emisael Jaramillo, who went 3 wide around the turn to take up the lead with a race best figure of 12.32s for the 6th furlong. He was 2 lengths up in the home stretch before his stamina gave out and his stride frequency dropped to 2.27 per second in the final furlong. This was a much improved performance from Doug O’Neill’s Colt and I certainly think there is a chance that he can narrow the gap from his earlier form with Intrepido and Cherokee Nation when they met in the Robert B Lewis Stakes in February. However, Potente appeared to have him covered last time and found 0.3s on him in the final furlong, which would look to be a difficult gap to bridge. When I looked at the morning line prices, I felt that Robusta was the overpriced one and he should go into an exotic bet given the strength of his form and the improvement that he found last time. He did record a better top speed than Potente in the San Felipe Stakes, but it will take a very cute ride from Jaramillo to take advantage of that fact for win purposes.
So Happy won his first 2 starts including when recording the best last speed figure in the field (35.09 mph) in the G2 San Vicente Stakes. However, he struggled when he was taken on for the lead by Brant in the San Felipe Stakes and seems likely to get more competition on the front end on Saturday if they choose to employ the same tactics. Intrepido is the bigger danger. Jeff Mullins’ charge was 2nd to Plutarch in the Robert B Lewis Stakes and that form has been boosted by Robusta, Cherokee Nation and last weekend’s Oaklawn Park winner Desert Gate in the interim period. He broke very quickly to get to the front from stall 4 that day, clocking 11.95 and 11.68s for the opening 2 furlongs and although he was worn down by Plutarch in the final furlong, he held the rest quite comfortably despite recording a finishing speed of 94%. He was no match for Ted Noffey at the Breeders’ Cup but has otherwise been progressive with every start and were he to get an unpestered lead, he would be the most likely winner. However, with the likes of So Happy and Cherokee Nation likely to get a similarly fast start from lower draws, it was hard to see how he could get such a position around the first turn.
This would look to be the ideal setup for the unbeaten Potente and provided he doesn’t meet any traffic problems around the far turn, the finishing kick that he showed 4 weeks ago should be more than enough to deliver a 10th win in this race for his trainer. I think there are more likely winners of the Kentucky Derby than Potente, but he has only had 2 opportunities to show us what he can do. If he takes the step into Grade 1 company in his stride, then he may yet prove to be Bob Baffert’s best chance at the start of May.