Santa Anita Derby (G1)
Bob Baffert’s wait for a 10th Santa Anita Derby goes on after his previously unbeaten colt Potente was beaten by SO HAPPY in a thrilling duel up the Santa Anita home straight. The pair pulled a long way clear of everything else, crossing the line 1.23s ahead of the distant 3rd (Vitruvian Man). A winning time of 1:49.01 was faster than both Journalism (2025) and Stronghold (2024) had been in recent years and given the early pace set by the runner-up, the Baffert team can perhaps take some comfort from the fact that their son of Into Mischief ran a time that would have been good enough to win the last 2 renewals of the Santa Anita Derby. However, that would do a disservice to the winner, who received a brilliant ride from Mike Smith to get his career back on track. Here’s a look at the data and what it can tell us about the 2026 Santa Anita Derby;
This was a 3rd win in 4 starts for Mark Glatt’s charge, who readily reversed the form with Potente from the San Felipe Stakes last month as the roles of the 2 main protagonists were switched. In the San Felipe Stakes, it had been so Happy who was involved in an early scrap for the lead, with Potente stalking the pace in behind. Fast forward a few weeks and the roles changed, with Potente playing the role of pacemaker on the inside of an early battle to lead, whilst Mike Smith sat 2 or 3 lengths off the lead waiting to make his challenge. The race was run at a strong pace, with the winner recording a finishing speed of 96% and the runner-up, who worked hard in the early stages, coming home at a 94.8% speed. However, there really wasn’t any element of luck in this performance from So Happy, who recorded the fastest individual split in the field for each of the final 5 furlongs of the contest. He had the longer average stride length figure (25.21 ft) which reached a race peak figure of 26.54 ft and gave him a significant edge over Potente (race average 24.26 ft) in the closing stages. So Happy also recorded the bigger variance figure between his average stride frequency (2.2 per second) and his race peak of 2.36 strides per second. All of that helped him to record the best late speed figure in the field at 35.14 mph as he ran out a relatively comfortable 2.75 length winner of the Santa Anita Derby. Having hit the line hard with a run-out speed figure of 32.91 mph, he would appear to be getting stronger and having earned 100 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, it was good to hear Mark Glatt confirm after the race that he will be taking his place at Churchill Downs next month. In what was an emotional victory for the stable, there’s no doubt that So Happy was the best horse on the day and after a superb ride from Mike Smith, who was winning the Santa Anita Derby for a 7th time, he has earned his shot at the first of the Triple Crown races in May.
Cherokee Nation was the disappointment of the race and having blown the start, taking 12.46s to reach the first furlong pole, his race was over after a slow start. That may have inconvenienced Potente, who found himself in front around the first turn and having been involved in a sustained battle with Robusta, who also disappointed after fading with 3 furlongs to run, Potente had to work very hard over the opening 6 furlongs. He reached that point of the contest in 71s exactly, at a furlong average of 11.83s, but that pace didn’t leave him with a great deal left to repel the strong finishing winner. If we look at his average stride frequency figures, they do offer some hope that he may be able to at least get closer to So Happy in the future and this race should at least lead his connections to the view that Potente would be better if he had a pace to track, rather than trying to blaze a trail in front. Initially, I was disappointed by Potente having picked him as my selection in the TPD preview of this race, but a look at the stride data has changed my mind and in my opinion, he has at least matched his earlier level of form on Saturday evening. His average stride frequency figures for the final 5 furlongs of the contest were 2.23, 2.24, 2.26, 2.27 and 2.22 per second, a drop of less than 1% over the final half a mile of the race. Given his early exertions, Potente did well to finish a clear 2nd and when we consider that he was 2.5s ahead of the other pace setter (Robusta) when crossing the line, it does suggest that we can upgrade this performance. He earned 50 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby on Saturday and Bob Baffert confirmed that he has earned his place at Churchill Downs next month. Whilst it’s possible that he may go forwards in that race, it seems more likely that he will take a lead in the Derby and as a result, it’s not impossible to think that Potente may produce a better finishing effort, especially given the stride frequency data we have from this race.
The front pair were over 6 lengths clear of the rest and it seems unlikely that any of the other beaten horses would be able to reverse this form in the future. Having put such a big gap between themselves and the rest, both So Happy and Potente have earned their shot at the Kentucky Derby in 4 weeks time. At this stage, I would have to argue that the form of horses like Commandment and Renegade is slightly stronger, but this pair would look to be the best of the California 3-year-olds and both will head to Churchill Downs with at least a chance of hitting the frame.