An overall time of 5:21.62 is par for the course under soft conditions. In recent years it ranks in the middle for this race, with the likes of Defi du Seuil (2019), Terrefort (2018) and Top Notch (2017) all going faster with similar going descriptions. The small field put pay to any chance of a fast time, but if we were to compare the sectional times of Sixmilebridge to the other winners over fences on Saturday, it does paint him in a slightly better light. He was almost 5s faster than Norn Iron in the Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase over the same course and distance earlier on the card, carrying 6 lbs more. When we compare the pair of them over the final half a mile, Sixmilebridge was significantly quicker, recording a late speed figure of 28.64 mph and running the last 4 furlongs in 60.09s compared to the 63.01s run by Norn Iron. Harry Cobden gave Norn Iron a very patient ride and didn’t ask him for maximum effort until the final couple of furlongs, but having started ahead of him, the fact that Sixmilebridge was considerably quicker after jumping the railway fences does at least work in his favour. 

There are some other factors to take into account. Sixmilebridge was faster than both Norn Iron and also Jax Junior over the final half a mile, but he came into this contest rated 149 and so you would naturally expect him to record a faster time than horses rated 116 and 139, regardless of the weight carried. I also have to add that whilst he jumped fluently, he was largely allowed an uncontested lead in a race where he recorded a finishing speed of 106.6% and once Kitzbuhel left the contest, his task became a much simpler one. Kielan Woods gave him a great ride, but he was able to control the pace and allow his mount to get into a rhythm. Sixmilebridge was the fastest horse in 10 of the 20 furlong splits that we recorded, including each of the last 3 and no horse finished as strongly up the Sandown hill as he did on Saturday. However, he had the conditions to do so and I was pleased to see that the handicapper hasn’t overreacted to a 5 length win in a Grade 1, giving him a rise of just 1 lb to a mark of 150 on the back of this. That leaves Fergal O’Brien with a decision to make for the Cheltenham festival, if he goes. A mark of 150 would leave him near the top of the weights in the Jack Richards Novices’ Handicap Chase (last year Springwell Bay carried top weight from 154) and he seems less likely to get an easy time of things in front in that race. All 3 successes this season have come in races with 4 runners or less, which is not going to be the case at the festival in the handicap. The alternative option is to run in the 3-mile Grade 1. That will have a smaller field and given that Final Demand has now blotted his copy book, the race looks more open than it did a month ago. He may be able to lead there and he didn’t appear to be stopping on the run to the line on Saturday. I think that he would see out the 3 mile trip on the Old Course, but no matter how I approach this weekend’s performance, I can’t get him beyond a rating of 150-152. The time figures were where I would expect them to be when compared to the other races on the card and the data would suggest that he is probably slightly too high in the weights for one race and not quite at the level required to win the other. Fergal O’Brien’s pst-race comments of “We’ll enjoy today, he’s in a few races at Cheltenham and we’ve got all bases covered so we’ll see how we get on” suggest that they aren’t sure at this stage and factors like the ground and make up of the 2 races will have to come into play.