Stephen Foster Stakes (G1)
Churchill Downs - 27th June 2026
A small but select field will go to post for the Grade 1 Stephen Foster Stakes at Churchill Downs on Saturday. The race would look to revolve around the best of last year’s Triple Crown form, but when we add in the multiple Grade 1 winning White Abarrio and the Dubai World Cup winner Magnitude, we have the makings of a fantastic race. Some very big names have won this race as 4-year-olds in the past, Gun Runner (2017), Blame (2010), Curlin (2008) and Street Cry (2002) to name but a few. Here’s a look at what the data can tell us about this year’s contenders;
Willy D’s 5. G
Michael J Maker, Luis Saez
“A very admirable 5-year-old who has 7 wins on his CV, including both his most recent starts. He made virtually every yard to win the Lake Ouachita Stakes at Oaklawn Park last time and he would appear to be the most likely pace angle in the race, especially as he has drawn stall 1. He’s smart enough to lead the field into the back straight, but this is his first try in Grade 1 company on his 28th career start and he is yet to win beyond Grade 3 level. The race at Oaklawn Park last time did set up perfectly for him and both the winner and runner-up recorded finishing speeds above 99%. The pair dominated the race and then kicked away around the final turn, but the runner-up (Coal Battle) was actually faster than Willy D’s over the final quarter of a mile. He was soundly beaten in the Arlington Stakes at Churchill Downs at the end of May on his next start and the overall impression is that Willy D’s will only go so far and may well find himself in waters that are simply too deep as this field comes into the home stretch”.
White Abarrio 7. H
Saffie Joseph Jr, Irad Ortiz Jr
“When he won the Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream in 2025, I really thought he would be the dominant force in US dirt racing. It didn’t work out last year but he’s been much more like his old self in 2026, finishing a close 2nd in his bid to retain his Pegasus crown and then running what appeared to be close to his peak form when winning the Oaklawn Handicap in April. He probably hit the front too soon at Gulfstream in January and was picked off by the winner in the final 100 yards, but they were a long way clear of the rest and he ran very close to his 2025 level on the figures. The race at Oaklawn came with a fitness advantage over his main rivals and a cunning piece of race riding from Irad Ortiz Jr at the start, where he came off the inside rail to force Sovereignty to go wider around the first turn certainly helped. He finished his race to good effect and clocked the fastest closing splits in the home straight, but there are several reasons to think that the race was run entirely to suit White Abarrio. He had a fitness edge over Sovereignty and Journalism, but he also recorded a finishing speed of 99%. In a race run at a relatively sedate pace, the fact that he had the highest average stride frequency in the field (2.38 strides per second) meant that he was always the most likely winner when the sprint for home began. He finished well and deserved the success, but Sovereignty had a higher top speed figure at 41.8 mph and went through the line with a better run-out speed too. He may get a similar pace on Saturday, but it seems unlikely. Willy D’s, Magnitude and possibly even Sovereignty seem likely to go forwards and in a race run with a faster pace, White Abarrio’s shorter stride may well be a vulnerability. Journalism has been beaten since, though the drop to a mile was always a risk, especially given that he was taking on Nysos in the Metropolitan Handicap, so I won’t judge the Oaklawn form on that basis. However, the winning time, the way the pace developed in the latter stages and the fact that Sovereignty was ridden in a manner that suggested there were bigger targets ahead, does lead me to the conclusion that White Abarrio may have had his big day. He will get other opportunities this year, but in a prolonged battle with the bigger 4-year-olds, I think he will come upon slightly short”.
Sovereignty 4. C
William Mott, Junior Alvarado
“The superstar of last year’s 3-year-old crop. I won’t debate whether he would have won the Breeders’ Cup Classic, but he would certainly have gone very close and that setback is the only thing that is missing from his CV. He was the best horse in the race in both the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes and found ways to win even when the data suggested that his slightly slower speed figures may have made him vulnerable. Although he was beaten by White Abarrio last time, that was a messy race and the fact that he recorded better top speed and run-out speed figures than the winner would lead me to think that it was a case that he would simply be better with the benefit of that comeback run behind him. His peak average stride length figure (25.41 ft) was over a foot longer than the winner and the 11.09s that he recorded for the 2nd furlong, at a time when Irad Ortiz was doing his best to keep him wide, was the best split recorded in the entire race. They simply didn’t go fast enough for him and when it became tactical, it left him vulnerable to White Abarrio’s turn-of-foot. The winner recorded an average stride frequency of 2.45 strides per second in the penultimate furlong, which was higher than the maximum frequency recorded by Sovereignty throughout the entire race. Now that he has made his return, it seems sensible to expect that he will be much fitter this time around and as a result, Junior Alvarado should be able to commit him for home with more confidence. A stronger stamina test should suit and we know that he does his best work in the closing stages of his races, which ought to at least be enough to reverse the Oaklawn form”.
Baeza 4. C
William Mott, Flavien Prat
“Sovereignty 3 – 0 Baeza. That is the key statistic that this son of McKinzie has to overcome. He had 3 shots at Sovereignty last year and came up short every time. He was only 0.31s behind in the Kentucky Derby, but the gap grew to over a second in the Belmont Stakes and he had the weights on his side when still finishing 2nd in the Jim Dandy Stakes. Their average stride length figures were very similar on the first 2 occasions with less than 0.05 ft between their 2 race average figures, but Sovereignty was simply too strong. Baeza can definitely be forgiven his 3rd placed finish in the Alysheba Stakes in May. Having been settled in rear, he was given a lot of work to do by Junior Alvarado, who had his mount over a second behind the leader with half a mile to run. Baeza closed relentlessly and was the fastest horse on the clock in 5 of the last 6 furlongs as well as recording the highest stride frequency in the final furlong, the only point in the race that he did so. A race best run-out speed of 34.36 mph completed the impression that he was an unlucky loser and if we take the final 4 furlongs in isolation, he was the fastest horse in the field by over a quarter of a second. He will surely be closer to the pace in this smaller field and ought to finish his race well with the benefit of race fitness on his side and he did run a faster final furlong than Sovereignty in the Kentucky Derby last year, but his stablemate had a better overall late speed figure on all 3 occasions last year and the percentage call would be that he will be too strong once again if they both get a clear run”.
Magnitude 4. C
Steven Asmussen, Jose Ortiz
“The situation in the Middle East in March meant that we weren’t able to record the data on Dubai World Cup Night, but getting the better of Forever Young under any circumstances should not be underestimated as a piece of form. The Japanese star has been beaten in both attempts at the Dubai World Cup and the double with the Saudi Cup has yet to be achieved, but having made the running and found enough energy to hold off Forever Young in the final furlong, Magnitude must have run a career best in my opinion. The winning time of 2:04.38 was one of the slower times for the Dubai World Cup, with only Country Grammar (2022) running a slower time in the last decade, but my overall impression would be that Magnitude is a better horse as a 4-year-old than he was when beaten by Sovereignty and Baeza last year. He will need to be. He has a lot of work to do to reverse the form from the Travers Stakes and the Pennsylvania Derby, but having started quickly and raced prominently in both starts this year, he does seem likely to be in front of them in the back stretch. He had the best run-out speed in the field when winning the Razorback Handicap at Oaklawn Park earlier in the year and ought to be too strong for the other likely pace angle (Willy D’s) once they turn for home. We haven’t seen him since March, but he has won all 4 starts in his career so far when returning from a break of 60 days or more, so the fitness angle shouldn’t really be a concern. If Jose Ortiz were to get the fractions right, I can see a scenario whereby he could steal this race from the front, but it will require an exceptional piece of pace judgement, as it did when he rode him at Meydan. If Sovereignty or Baeza were to come alongside, they both seem likely to prove to be stronger finishers, and there will be a fine line between a perfectly timed kick for home and going too soon”.
The Data View
When I looked at the form of the Oaklawn Handicap back in April, I felt a sense that it was both a return to peak form for White Abarrio, as well as being a piece of form that was likely to be reversed later in the season. The presence of a couple of pace angles should make this race a stronger test of stamina and as a result, the most obvious case would seem to be that Sovereignty will reverse the form. If it becomes a tactical race then White Abarrio will win, but that seems a very unlikely “If”. Magnitude could steal this with a cute ride, but the data would suggest to me that he is likely to see off the attentions of Willy D’s, only to find that the stronger stayers come alongside in the final furlong. Provided Sovereignty is kept close enough to the pace, he should win and if there is a play in the markets for this race, then the Sovereignty/Baeza exacta would look to be the best angle. Although Baeza was an unlucky loser at Churchill Downs in May, I didn’t see anything in the data to suggest that he would improve enough to reverse the 2025 form. Sovereignty was the best horse on the dirt in 2025 and now that he has returned from his injury setback, he should prove it on Saturday evening.