The Champion Hurdle So Far...
The Cheltenham festival is now just a few months away and with the Christmas and New Year Racing out of the way, a lot of the attention will turn towards those 4 days in the middle of March. We have to start somewhere and given that all of the main contenders for the Champion Hurdle have now made at least one start this season, that seemed to be the most obvious with which to begin the more serious festival form study. This is a data led review, so there won’t be too much time wasted discussing which race Lossiemouth should run in (for what it’s worth I’d choose the Mares’ hurdle if she were mine) or whether Constitution Hill will ever return to hurdling. Instead the focus is simply on what the data can tell us about each of the contenders so far, starting with the current favourite for the race, Sir Gino.
This time 12-months ago Sir Gino was a short price favourite for the Arkle after destroying Ballyburn in the Wayward Lad at Kempton. It’s been quite a year for him since, as he overcame a life threatening issue and it was wonderful to see him return to action in the Christmas Hurdle. On the bare form he has beaten the reigning champion hurdler Golden Ace by 6 lengths and he was over a second quicker than her for the final half a mile (52.52s). He was the fastest horse in the field for each of the final 4 furlong splits and his overall time was 5s faster than the maiden hurdle later on the card won by Klub de Reve. If I was to be slightly “picky”, I’d highlight the fact that both Klub de Reve (51.98s) and Surrey Lord (52.03s) were slightly quicker than he was over the final half a mile that day, with the latter winning a slowly run handicap hurdle over 2 miles and 5 furlongs at the end of the card. That’s a little harsh. I think the simple fact is that there was very little opposition to Sir Gino and as such, he was towing the field along before he asserted in the closing stages. He was keen in Nico de Boinville’s hands and I think he is likely to prove to be better with a lead to help him settle. He’s a very fast horse and on every start in the UK, he has produced the fastest final 2 furlong splits. Given that there seems little doubt that he is being aimed at the race, he is a worthy favourite and there is certainly no reason to think that Golden Ace will reverse the form.
Whether or not we take the view that Golden Ace is slightly fortunate to have a Champion Hurdle and a Fighting Fifth win on her CV, the fact is that she has jumped all of the hurdles on both occasions and we know from Newcastle, where she lost just 2.4% of her speed on average over her obstacles, that she is likely to get round in March. Last year that was enough to land the prize and I think that there is a case to be made that Kempton didn’t play to her strengths. She struggled to match the pace of Sir Gino and met some of the hurdles on the wrong stride as a result, but to her credit she battled on to finish a clear 2nd and although she was no match for the winner, her final quarter of a mile (28.38s) was still 0.67s (around 3 lengths) faster than course specialist Rubaud (3rd). Anzadam didn’t really advertise the Newcastle form in Ireland over Christmas and the fact that he recorded faster top speed and run-out speed figures than Golden Ace in December does raise some doubts about the form. Can she finish in the first 3? Absolutely. However, if we assume that those ahead of her in the market complete the course, which is all we can really do at this point, the evidence we have would suggest that she may well be outpaced, as she was 12 months ago before State Man came to grief at the last. State Man was 0.85s faster than Golden Ace in the 2 furlongs leading to the final flight last year and I think we have enough evidence to suggest that Sir Gino is a faster horse than he is, which leads to the logical conclusion that the Kempton form is unlikely to be overturned.
Newcastle 29.11.25
Pic Dan Abrahm-focusonracing.com
After an almost perfect novice hurdle campaign it was easy to see why the connections of The New Lion chose to send him down the Champion Hurdle route. He produced an incredibly nimble jumping display at Newbury and Cheltenham last season. Having lost an average of just 3.5% of his speed over his hurdles in the Challow last December, he proved himself to be fast enough to compete at this level and I don’t think there are any reasons to doubt his speed for the trip from the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle. Prior to falling, he recorded furlong splits of 12.96 and 12.99s, which compares well with Sir Gino (13.22, 13.10s) over the same part of the course 12-months earlier. Different races and slightly different going need to be taken into account of course, but there’s enough evidence to suggest that The New Lion will be able to race at Champion Hurdle pace. I’m more concerned with the way he went through the race at Newcastle. The early fall of Constitution Hill may have caused a change in tactics and approach from Harry Skelton, but The New Lion jinked and nearly ran out at one of the hurdles in the back straight and he had come off the bridle when running to his left and falling at the 2nd last. We hadn’t seen that from him before. The simplest explanation is that he needs to take a lead rather than make the running and I expect him to be ridden accordingly if he lines up in the International hurdle at Cheltenham later in the month. However, he needs to return to his novice form before I could be entirely certain that the Newcastle issues have been ironed out. When winning at the festival in March he was the fastest horse in the final 2 furlongs (13.85, 15.37s) but that came against The Yellow Clay and Final Demand, who have both been shown to need 3 miles subsequently. I don’t doubt that he will be able to lie up with the pace but there are some nagging doubts that need to be addressed now.
We have all sorts of data at TPD, but none of it can tell us what Willie Mullins and the connections of Lossiemouth will choose to do in March. There will be enough column inches written about which race she should and will run in and I don’t intend to add to that here. Here’s what I can say. Lossiemouth has a superb Cheltenham record. In last year’s Mares’ Hurdle she recorded a top speed of 37.56 mph with closing furlong splits of 13.18 and 14.29s. That was faster than Golden Ace (36.55 mph) in the Champion Hurdle 40 minutes later and given the way the race panned out, I have little doubt that she would have won the Champion Hurdle if she had run in it. I don’t think we learned much from her short-priced win in the Morgiana, but she showed a tenacious attitude to win the December Hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas. She was helped by Anzadam bolting under Patrick Mullins at the end of the back straight which helped to stretch the field and in particular the returning Brighterdaysahead. The latter was having her first run of the season after an aborted chasing campaign and so the fact that she was faster than Lossiemouth over the final 3 furlongs, albeit by only 0.09s, does raise a slight doubt. When beaten in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton she seemed to be caught out by the pace and although Cheltenham plays much more to her strengths, in a small field that is a vulnerability. She is an exceptional mare and I’d love to see her in the race, possibly with a pacemaker to help her cause. If I were to price it, I’d make her 4/6 to run in the Mares’ Hurdle and 6/4 for the Champion Hurdle entry. The Irish Champion Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival is likely to hold the key. She needs to uphold the form with Brighterdaysahead in my opinion and if she doesn’t, I think another tilt at the Mares’ Hurdle will become a certainty.
Brighterdaysahead has 2 defeats at Cheltenham on her CV. There were excuses in the Dawn Run in 2024 when Jack Kennedy and Paul Townend spent more time looking at each other than riding the race and Golden Ace has at least advertised that form since. After an incredible performance at Leopardstown last Christmas, she failed to repeat the effort and that race clearly left a mark, but it does raise doubts about whether she really handles the track at Cheltenham. She was faster than Lossiemouth in the finish over Christmas and her connections must have been very pleased with that first run of the season against a race fit rival. I think she has a decent chance of reversing the form with the benefit of that run and if she does, then she surely comes back into the Champion Hurdle picture. However, the data suggests she is a better horse in Ireland than she has shown on her 2 previous visits to Prestbury Park and that needs to be taken into account.
I simply can’t use the data to discuss Constitution Hill. A horse with recent form figures of FF5-F is impossible to assess and as such, he has to be ignored. Whether he runs over hurdles again or lines up in an All-Weather maiden is great for social media engagement, but it won’t help solve this puzzle. If by some miracle he returns to his former self and wins in March, I will be happy to applaud his connections for their efforts but I can’t see it and am happy to let him run at any price. If he wins, then so be it but I would be annoyed with myself if I lost money backing a horse with those recent figures.
It’s fair to say that things haven’t really developed in the way that El Fabiolo’s connections may have hoped, but I thought he showed a lot of promise on his return to hurdling at Punchestown on New Year’s Eve. It was his first start over the smaller obstacles since 2022, but he jumped soundly in front and pulled clear to win by 8 lengths with the fastest final 3 furlong splits in the field. The winning time only matched the handicap hurdle won by the 121 rated Linden Arden over the same course and distance and beating Glen Kiln and Spillane’s Tower over 2 miles and 3 furlongs is a long way short of what is required to win a Champion Hurdle. However, this was a step in the right direction after a lot of well documented issues over fences and whilst I don’t think he can win in March, if he lined up it’s not impossible to think that he could hit the frame if he improves for this return to hurdling. I’m also keeping a small eye on Kopek des Bordes. The Arkle is clearly his aim, but he missed his Christmas engagement with a small setback and if he didn’t make it to the Dublin Racing Festival too, he seems unlikely to run in the Arkle with just a Beginners’ Chase under his belt. His winning time of 4:12.04 in the Supreme was over 4s faster than Golden Ace at last year’s festival and if he returned to hurdling then he would be an interesting player. It’s little more than speculation at this point though and so it can be little more than an afterthought until something changes.
I started to write this piece with a view to posting an Ante Post selection. At the time of writing, Sir Gino is 6/4. There is definitely a scenario where he has a shorter SP, especially if Lossiemouth runs in the Mares Hurdle. He did everything that he needed to at Kempton and it is only the fact that he hasn’t made it to the last 2 festivals that puts me off. If the race were to develop into a contest between himself and The New Lion, I’d have to be with Sir Gino, especially after the doubts that the Fighting Fifth performance raised about the latter. Once we get to the Non-Runner No Bet stage, the 6/4 will likely disappear and if things don’t pan out for The New Lion and Lossiemouth in a few weeks time there is a scenario where he could be even shorter. I certainly wouldn’t want to lay him and when looking ahead to these Cheltenham races, I think we have to assume that everything is a runner. That assumption leads me to think that this will come down to pace and our data would suggest that Sir Gino is the fastest horse. Golden Ace and El Fabiolo do represent some value in the place markets, but if it was Win Only I’d want at least 33/1 about both of them as it seems unlikely that at least 2 of those ahead of them in the market will run. Until we know the makeup of the field, it can be hard to form a strong opinion and so I will be sitting on the fence with this race for now, but if they all lined up, I’d have to make the case that Sir Gino is the fastest horse and there is nothing that we have seen from the data so far this season that would make me doubt that view.