The Stayers' Hurdle
Is Kabral du Mathan a Contender?
There are several different form lines that are merging together into this year’s Stayers’ Hurdle market. Teahupoo represents the established group. The winner of the race in 2024, he added a 3rd Hatton’s Grace Hurdle win to his CV in December before what looked to be close to a career best effort when winning the Christmas Hurdle by 7 lengths at Leopardstown 3 weeks later. That victory came over last year’s Stayers’ Hurdle winner Bob Olinger and included closing furlongs of 14.49 and 16.27s. They were both the fastest individual furlongs in the field at that point of the race, but with the benefit of a run in his favour, he was only 0.43s faster than the runner-up over the final quarter of a mile. If we assume that Bob Olinger is likely to improve for the benefit of that run, then it might lead to the conclusion that there is room in this market for an improver.
Impose Toi would have to be top of the potential improvers list. He has taken the step out of handicap company in his stride this year and has the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle on his CV after an impressive victory at Ascot before Christmas. He has beaten Strong Leader twice and whilst he was only 0.48s quicker than Strong Leader in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury, he extended that to 0.60s in the Long Walk. We know a lot about Strong Leader at this point, most notably that he is better on a Flat track and so whilst Impose Toi has had the best of their 2 races, he still has work to do including confirming the form with a race fit Honesty Policy who had the best run-out speed in the field at Ascot. Those are some of the more established form lines, but coming in from slightly left field is the Dan Skelton trained Kabral Du Mathan, who is a short as 10/1 at the time of writing.
I’ll start with some of the basic conclusions that we can draw from the data. Since moving to Dan Skelton, Kabral du Mathan has definitely improved. The form of his 12 length romp at Haydock took a significant boost when the runner-up, Andashan, won comfortably on his next start at Newbury over Christmas. Kabral du Mathan was the fastest horse in each of the last 4 furlong splits (13.19, 12.27, 12.47 and 13.57s) to win with ease, recording race best top speed and run-out speed figures. That run came following wind surgery, but I think it’s important to note that despite having weight to concede, he beat horses with official ratings of 125 and 127 at the time. However, he took a significant step forwards when winning the Grade 2 Relkeel Hurdle at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day and that is the piece of form that we are best judging him on.
The ground was an important factor and a winning time of 4:52.82s, the fastest winning time in the race since Karabak in 2010 does point to the fact that it was “Good” ground. We can check that to a point and his time being 6.39s faster than the TPD expected time for the course and distance with that going description does suggest that Kabral du Mathan was able to run such a time at least in part because the course conditions allowed him to. Kabral du Mathan traveled extremely strongly and could be called the winner from a long way out, but having run the fastest final 3 furlong splits (12.77, 12.82 and 13.94s) I think it’s important to add some context to those closing furlongs too. Those finishing speeds, which led to a late speed figure of 33.4 mph, made Kabral du Mathan the fastest horse in the latter stages of the 4 races run on the hurdles course that afternoon, including the Listed “Junior” Bumper at the end of the card. If he is to be a contender in Grade 1 company then we might expect him to produce such a result, but in a race run with a finishing speed of 111%, it’s perhaps not a surprise to see that the horse with the best late turn-of-foot came out on top. A much better question to ask about Kabral du Mathan, is will he stay?
The simple answer is we don’t know. Firstly, he is yet to race beyond 2 miles and 4 furlongs and his run in the Relkeel was the first time that he had gone beyond 2 miles. When he was beaten last season, it came in races where the pace was stronger, most notably when Fiercely Proud beat him at Ascot in a race run with a finishing speed of 98%. He’s a much better horse now and having raced 8 times, winning 5 and never finishing outside of the first 2, he’s certainly going the right way. However, we cannot be certain that he will stay the 3 mile trip in the Stayers’ Hurdle. Both successes this season have come in races where the finishing speed was above 110% and in a Grade 1 at the Cheltenham Festival, that seems unlikely, although the 2 most recent renewals have recorded figures of 108 and 109% respectively.
It’s a better race this year and with JP McManus having such a strong hand with 2 horses who will almost certainly want this to be a stamina sapping contest, the percentage call is to expect a faster early pace and a more relentless gallop. That will test Kabral du Mathan if this is indeed the route he takes. His stride frequency data would suggest that he had more in the tank if needed on New Year’s Day, but getting the better of the 144 rated Jingko Blue and Lucky Place is some distance behind the form of the Christmas Hurdle and the Long Walk at Ascot. Lucky Place ran the fastest final 2 furlongs in the race when winning the Relkeel Hurdle last year, but this season he was 1.31s slower than Kabral du Mathan despite the 2 races having similar finishing speed percentages. It’s possible to take the view that Kabral du Mathan was simply a better horse, but it does raise slight questions over the form, especially on that unseasonably quick ground.
He’s a fast horse. The 12.77 and 12.82s that he ran for the penultimate furlongs in the Relkeel Hurdle were faster than the 12.90 and 13.15s run by Bob Olinger when he won the 2025 renewal of the race. Making comparisons from different days is always a risky strategy, but it might suggest that if the race was run in a similar fashion, Kabral du Mathan could be the beneficiary. We can discuss pace, finishing speeds, jumping fluency and stride frequency data, but ultimately until they jump off in the Stayers’ Hurdle, we won’t know how the race will develop. If the emphasis is placed on speed, then we know that Kabral du Mathan will be competitive, but if the emphasis is placed on stamina, then we can’t be sure. Dan Skelton’s post race interview with ITV Racing at Cheltenham implied that he felt he would get 3 miles, but that the Aintree Hurdle might be more suitable for such a young horse and so like many of the unexposed horses in the markets, some caution is also needed as to whether he will even run at this year’s festival. If he runs, and it is an “If”, we can say that he won’t be beaten due to a lack of speed, but whether his stamina holds out at this stage, is a question that neither data nor form judge can answer with any confidence yet.