Draftkings Travers Stakes - Grade 1
Saratoga - 29th August 2026
“A fast horse can run a slow time, but a slow horse cannot run a fast time”. If we take that approach, I think it is important to recognise that Leading Change may still have run to an exceptionally high standard to win the Travers Stakes, even if the clock might suggest otherwise.
Leading Change announced himself on the world stage with victory in Saturday’s G1 Draftkings Travers Stakes at Saratoga. The Gun Runner colt, who runs in the Wathnan Racing silks has now won all 3 starts for Brad Cox and has thrown his hat into the ring for the Breeders’ Cup Classic after taking his first Grade 1 success, on his first try at the highest level I might add. Having beaten the 2 horses who took the American Triple Crown races between them earlier in the year, this does look to be a particularly strong piece of 3-year-old form, but what can the data tell us?
I want to start by focusing on the winner. I will come to the beaten horses and in particular the run of Golden Tempo later, but this was a huge step up in class for Leading Change, who was the least experienced runner in the field and the fact that he remains open to the most amount of improvement means that he should not be underestimated. A winning time of 2:02.98 made this the slowest winning time in the Travers Stakes since V.E. Day ran an identical figure to win for James Jerkens under Javier Castellano in 2014 and that overall figure, coupled with the fact that the winner recorded a finishing speed of 96.9%, does help to explain why the horses who raced prominently were able to dominate the finish. I think it certainly helped to explain how the Preakness winner Napoleon Solo, who recorded the fastest top speed figure in the race (40.78 mph), was able to hang around for so long on the front end, despite the fact that his stamina for this trip had been brought into question by his earlier stride frequency data. He ran close to a career best and did well to repel the attention from Sea Strike, who had recorded the fastest Beyer speed figure of any of the runners in this field when he won the Curlin Stakes, but Leading Change proved to be too strong. I try not to get too hung up on one specific time figure being better than another because I think there are so many variables, especially in dirt racing, that can affect the overall time. With a couple of truly world class exceptions, the majority of the fastest time figures have been run in races where there has been a strong early pace and much like in the world of athletics, the strength of the opposition and the pace that they are able to set has often aided the best horses to run the best times. It’s not my catchphrase and I have certainly seen a few superb judges using this on social media, but I like the mantra that “A fast horse can run a slow time, but a slow horse cannot run a fast time”. If we take that approach, I think it is important to recognise that Leading Change may still have run to an exceptionally high standard to win the Travers Stakes, even if the clock might suggest otherwise.
Having led at the end of the opening furlong after he clocked 12.32s for the first split, Manny Franco eventually decided to settle his mount behind the pace setting Napoleon Solo and Sea Strike. Although he had to be shaken up around the far turn, Leading Change found plenty when required and was always looking likely to win once he came alongside. A race best final furlong time of 12.92s and a run-out speed of 32.97 mph to match confirm the view that he was finishing best and in this type of pace scenario, he has once again shown himself to have a superb attitude to win. The bare form shows that he has beaten the Triple Crown winners and that he was faster than both of them at both the start and the finish of the race. On just his 3rd start this was superb and whilst the time figures and the finishing speeds of both this success and his earlier victory in the Indiana Derby may not be awe inspiring, all he can do is beat the horses that line up next to him. His average stride frequency (2.24 per second) and average stride length (24.26 ft) were within 1% of the expected average of a winner of this race from the Total Performance Data database. Having only made his debut in June, this son of Gun Runner fits into the “could be anything” category, if there is such a thing and it is entirely possible that he will improve again in a better race against the older horses. The clock can only tell you 1 piece of information and I think it would be a mistake to discount this performance on the basis that the overall time wasn’t that good because the underlying numbers from Leading Change suggest that he was comfortably on top.
There is a “but”. That is that this race was definitely run to suit the horses who raced prominently and a slow time and steady early pace were never likely to suit Golden Tempo. A top speed of 38.8 mph from the Belmont Stakes winner ranked only 9th and having been 1.59s behind the leader at halfway, he did every well to make up as much ground as he did. Despite running the fastest 8th and 9th furlong splits, he was simply too far back and in a race where the leaders weren’t stopping in the manner that they had in the triple crown races, he couldn’t get there. Making his challenge through the field, rather than coming wide to make his customary late run may not have helped, but it seems unlikely that Cherie DeVaux’s charge would have got to the front in any case. At a peak average of 26.3 ft, he had the longest stride length in the field, but that can only carry him so far and much like we discussed with Sovereignty earlier in the year, he does need a faster pace to be seen at his best. In the Belmont Stakes, the early leader (Powershift) had a finishing speed of 89% and has been shown to be some way below the level that Napoleon Solo has reached. Against better front-running horses with a slower early pace, he isn’t able to reach the same heights. Taking all of that into account, I don’t think Golden Tempo lost too much in defeat, especially given that he missed his intended run in the Jim Dandy Stakes with a bacterial lung infection. In a better race with a stronger early pace, I think we will see a better Golden Tempo and a rematch with Leading Change could be a fascinating watch.