Twinspires Louisiana Derby (G2)
EMERGING MARKET made it 2 wins from 2 starts for Chad Brown and took an enormous step forward from last month’s debut win at Tampa Bay Downs to win the Louisiana Derby. Despite being drawn widest in stall 9, he certainly received a lot of market support and having broken smartly with opening splits of 6.72, 10.94 and 10.87s, ranked 3rd, 5th and 3rd respectively, Flavien Prat found himself in the ideal position as the field headed into the back straight. This was a very clever ride from Flavien Prat, who tracked the pace throughout and who brought his mount around the leaders at the top of the stretch to get a clear run into the final furlong. Despite the fact that Emerging Market failed to run the fastest individual furlong split at any point of the race, he was always within striking distance of the leader and ultimately got the better of Pavlovian in the final 100 yards. He is a big son of Candy Ride, recording an average stride length of 25.13 ft which reached a peak of 26.15 ft at the end of the 3rd furlong. That stride allowed him to get into a prominent position in the early stages and from there, he was always likely to get the better of the more aggressively ridden Pavlovian.
The bare form looks very good. Pavlovian won the Sunland Park Derby for Doug O’Neill on his latest start in February and the 3rd placed Golden Tempo (Cherie Devaux) had chased home the very promising Paladin in the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds on Valentine’s Day. The front 3 had managed to put over a second between themselves and the rest of the field by the time that they crossed the line and the winner’s closing sectional times were quicker than Touchuponastar, who won the New Orleans Classic over the 9 furlongs earlier on the card. On the day, Emerging Market got the perfect ride and having been able to race with a consistent stride, he showed a great attitude to repel the runner-up in the last few strides. He was bred by Stoneriggs Farm and comes from the family of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner She Be Wild (2009) and having now earned 100 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, he has surely booked his place for the first of the triple crown races at the start of May. Flavien Prat’s post-race interview suggested he felt that he was going to win comfortably at the top of the straight but that Pavlovian had battled harder than he anticipated. Prat said after the race “I was a little worried about the nine hole, but we worked out a good trip. He fought hard. It was a good run, very professional. Honestly, when I turned for home I thought I would win easily, but Pavlovian gave us a good challenge.”
He is clearly a very talented horse and has run good time figures on both starts, but there is a small nagging doubt about his finishing effort on Saturday afternoon. Having watched the replay several times, I would agree with Flavien Prat’s view that he looked likely to win comfortably at the top of the home straight. I went back and watched his maiden win at Tampa Bay Downs and it was a similar scenario there too. Having come alongside the leader at the top of the home straight, he looked likely to kick clear but in the end managed to win by just three-quarters of a length. Now to be fair to him, the front pair were a distance clear of everything else that day as they crossed the line and both the 3rd (Make My Day) and 8th (Mr. Hooligan) have won since to boost the form. The likeliest explanation is that he is simply doing enough and the fact that he increased his stride frequency average from 2.17 per second in the penultimate furlong to 2.19 per second in the last would give some substance to that idea. A run-out speed of 34.8 mph ranked 2nd, so I don’t think there can be any doubts over his stamina and it could be that he is going to be a better horse when played later, but in the “rough and tumble” of the Kentucky Derby it would be a slight nagging doubt about Emerging Market.
This was a very competitive renewal of the Louisiana Derby and the fact that the first 3 put such a substantial distance between themselves and the rest of the field gives more confidence to think that this was one of the better races that we have seen so far on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. I also wanted to add some notes on the 3rd placed Golden Tempo. He was no match for Chad Brown’s Paladin in the Risen Star Stakes last month, but I think it is worth noting that he was the fastest horse in the field for furlongs 6, 7 and 8 that day and he has at least matched that level of form on Saturday. Having made ground from the rear of the field, he looked like he may be able to close on the leader in the straight and he was the fastest horse in the field for each of the last 5 furlong splits. However, as he reached the furlong pole, Jose Ortiz made the decision to switch to the inside rail and that seemed to check his momentum just enough to give him too much ground to make up. He closed all the way to the line once he reached the rail and as you can see from the Infographic above, he had the best run-out speed in the field at 35.3 mph. He recorded a longer average stride length than both the horses that finished ahead of him, as he did when 3rd in the Risen Star Stakes in February and his connections have clearly decided that he needs to be played late. He won the G3 Lecomte Stakes in January and whilst he has come up short in better company on his next 2 starts, the way he is being ridden and the long stride that he possesses would suggest to me that he could yet be capable of winning at this level if the race was run to suit.
At the time of writing, Emerging Market sits 2nd in the rankings for the Road to the Kentucky Derby with 100 points. I’m not sure that I would make him the 2nd favourite for the race if I were to price it at this stage. I think there are others who have achieved more on the track or who will do before we get to Churchill Downs in May. However, I like horses who only seem to do enough as it often means that there is plenty of improvement to come and if he is played slightly later, it’s not impossible to think that he could win in Grade 1 company this season.