William Hill Denman Chase (G2)
If we take the ratings and indeed the Antepost markets literally, then this is going to be a straight between Haiti Couleurs and L’Homme Presse. The former has already won a Welsh Grand National under a big weight this season and has been re-routed here after travel issues meant that he couldn’t take up his intended engagement in the Irish Gold Cup at the Dublin Racing Festival. The latter is an admirable veteran who returned to his best form when a close 2nd to Spillane’s Tower in the Cotswold Chase last month. That gives us the makings of a very good race. So what can the data tell us about the main contenders?
Haiti Couleurs
At the weights, the handicapper would say that Haiti Couleurs has 3 lbs to find. That’s probably fair given that he has made his way through the grades and he did blot his copy book in the Betfair Chase at Haydock on his only previous start in open graded company. I’m more than happy to forgive that run on a track that didn’t suit in at a fast pace on good to soft ground. 
He was never travelling and the post race checks by the Vet found nothing of note. Perhaps it came too close to his impressive winning return over hurdles in a Pertemps Qualifier at Newbury and the strong pace and finishing speed of 99% from the winner Grey Dawning played much more to the strengths of the Skelton’s horse. Haiti Couleurs quickly dispelled any doubts over his well being with an all the way success in the Welsh National at Chepstow under Sean Bowen. He lost an average of just 10.8% of his speed over his obstacles, a figure that decreased to a race best 8.4% in the latter stages and even though Sean Bowen allowed him to get a breather in as they approached the 2nd last, he rallied and ran the fastest final furlong in 15.09s and recorded a race best run-out speed of 30.06 mph. Stamina is his forte and if he is going to get the better of Jango Baie, he probably needs to make every yard of the running. He was beaten on this card 12 months ago, but that came over hurdles in what was clearly a run to get him ready for Cheltenham and I wouldn’t read anything into that. From the available data that we have, he has the longer stride of the pair and if he were to have a significant advantage turning for home, he could be hard to reel in, but this race will need to be run at a decent pace. In a sprint finish, he may well be vulnerable. I went back through the speed data for each of his last 5 starts and found that he ranked outside of the top 3 for his top speed figure on each occasion. If this were to develop into a tactical race with a sprint finish, he may struggle for a turn-of-foot.
L’Homme Presse
At the weights, L’Homme Presse came out best in the Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham. Conceding 6 lbs to Spillane’s Tower at the age of 11 was no mean feat and he did it admirably from the front, going down by just 0.16s. Venetia Williams has had a well documented below par season, but this lad has bucked that trend. His 2nd placed finish in a handicap chase at Cheltenham in December has worked out reasonably well and having dropped towards the rear at halfway, I thought he made good headway to get himself back into contention, recording the highest to speed figure in the field in the process at 36.51 mph. There’s no hiding that he was well placed in front in the Cotswold Chase, setting even fractions in a race that recorded the slowest winning time since Santini in 2020 and a finishing speed of 116%. His final 2 furlong splits of 14.59 and 15.12s were only 0.48s slower than Spillane’s Tower. There are some holes in that form, Grey Dawning was never involved and Flooring Porter was simply there to qualify for the Grand National after a long absence. However, it was another solid run from L’Homme Presse and if he is turned out again quickly, there is every reason to think he will run his race for the yard that won this in 2025 with Djelo. He has the necessary turn-of-foot to trouble his main rivals, but whether he will be able to lie up with the early pace from Haiti Couleurs is open to question and it wouldn’t be a total surprise to see him prove vulnerable to younger legs in the home straight.
Riskintheground
Officially rated 142, this is a good example of some optimistic placing which has brought some decent success to the Skeltons in recent seasons. There’s no doubt that he would be a shock winner and he is still carrying a penalty for his success at Cheltenham last April in the Silver Trophy, a success that came just a week after winning at Ayr as the Skelton yard attempted to hold off the Mullins charge for the Trainers Championship. He hasn’t been in the same form since and his sectional times began to fade with 6 furlongs to run when he ran at Cheltenham last month. If he completes the course then he should pick up some minor prize money but in his current form that looks to be the best that can be hoped for and he may need some better ground and easier company before he is competitive once again.
Leave of Absence
Anthony Honeyball’s charge was still a Novice when winning at Cheltenham in October. He benefitted from a prominent ride that day and had experience on his side, but he also ran the fastest final quarter of a mile in 31.5s and was good value for his 2 length win. He couldn’t back that up over the same course and distance a month later and the fact that Anthony Honeyball told the Stewards after the race that he felt the Soft ground had worked against him must raise a few concerns about the conditions on Saturday. However, there was a lot of promise shown in his 2nd placed finish behind Deep Cave at Ascot in December. Having made the running from halfway, he jumped well throughout, losing an average of just 7.8% of his speed over his obstacles and recording a race best top speed of 34.25 mph. He was headed in the final strides by Deep Cave, who was 0.75s quicker than Leave of Absence over the final quarter of a mile, but it was a solid effort from the pair at the top of the handicap ranks. This is a much tougher assignment and even though he is relatively lightly raced as a 9-year-old, he has a lot to find to be competitive with the likes of Jango Baie and Haiti Couleurs. However, I would argue that he is open to more improvement than the likes of Riskintheground and Master Chewy and he may be able to hold on for some minor money if one of the principles disappoints.
It’s very hard to get away from Haiti Couleurs. Whether he can win a Gold Cup is open to question, but he seems highly likely to lead on Saturday and as we saw in December, a decent early pace seems likely to get L’Homme Presse out of his comfort zone. He is still the most likely horse to finish 2nd, though if Leave of Absence were to handle the conditions better than he did at Cheltenham in November, he does have the necessary speed to finish his race well and could run into a place if ridden conservatively.