William Hill Game Spirit Chase (G2)
"Lulamba"
In the build up to Saturday’s card at Newbury there was a lot of speculation around Nicky Henderson’s team and whether they would run some of their stars on the deep ground at Newbury. Jango Baie wasn’t declared for the Denman Chase but the decision to keep Lulamba in the Game Spirit Chase was rewarded with a victory, his first in open company. Henderson has won this race with a Novice in the past. Sprinter Sacre (2012) and Altior (2017) both took this race before going on to win the Arkle at the Cheltenham Festival and I’m sure that they will be hoping to repeat the feat with Lulamba this time around. I still don’t really understand how this horse was beaten in the Triumph Hurdle last season, but that’s probably a bit of pocket talking rather than a reflection on the race itself. Saturday’s Game Spirit Chase was the first time that I had seen Lulamba do things the hard way and come out on top and I liked what I saw. There will be plenty of analysis written about his jumping technique and the fact that Nico de Boinville had to work to keep his mind on the job, but I liked the way Lulamba responded in the closing stages at Newbury and whatever happens in March, I think the decision to run him in the Game Spirit against experienced rivals will prove to be a good call in time.
There is no hiding the fact that his jumping needs work. The jumping fluency data from TPD shows that he lost an average of 12.8% of his speed over his obstacles, the equal worst jumping performance in the field. It was consistent, averaging 13.2% in the early stages, 12.7% in the middle part of the race and 12.5% in the closing stages, but compared to the likes of Liberty Hunter (8.9%) and Meetmebythesea (8%) it needs work. My jumping notes for Lulamba read as follows; “Tight and slow jump 1st, slow approaching 2nd, long at the water, dived slightly at the 4th (right), good at the 5th and 6th, slowed into 7th and slight bump with Calico on landing, slow and high at the 8th, asked for effort and fluent at the 10th, bumped with Calico again at 11th but landed running, best 2 jumps came at the last 2 fences when clear”. There is a lot of context needed with this jumping performance. Lulamba is a lightly raced novice chaser having just his 3rd start over fences and he was pitched in against experienced horses in the 140-150 bracket.
Add in the difficult ground conditions at Newbury and there is a need to upgrade this performance and the winning margin quite considerably. However, his jumping will be put under pressure in the Arkle and as we saw with Majborough last season, those mistakes can take their toll at 2 mile championship pace. For what it’s worth, I think Lulamba is an intelligent horse and although he did lose speed over several of his fences, he always managed to get his feet into the right position to clear the fence and I’d much rather see a careful novice than a clumsy one.
Lulamba has plenty of speed and although a top speed figure of 33.29 mph ranked only 4th, the fact that he spent a lot of time behind the leader and that once he was given racing room in the straight he picked up readily to run the fastest final 4 furlong splits in the race would far outweigh what the speedometer had to tell us. Nico de Boinville’s post-race comments implied that education was the main aim on Saturday afternoon and that perhaps explains both the decision to run and also the riding tactics that saw him sitting behind the pace set by Master Chewy. It hasn’t been a perfect campaign for Lulamba. The low sun at Exeter meant that he missed half the fences on his chase debut and at Sandown, the strong pace in the Henry VIII tested his ability to get into a rhythm. He has managed to pass all of the tests that have been set for him. He took a couple of considerable blows from Calico on Saturday, but he quickly recovered from those and powered away from this field in the closing stages in the manner of a horse who was in a different class to his rivals. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that his jumping improved when he had racing room and the fact that he was at his most fluent halfway down the back straight and in the closing stages surely won’t be missed by his connections. I would be surprised to see him tucked in on the inside at Cheltenham where the fences can come so quickly and all of our jumping data would suggest that his long stride (a race highest average of 20.82 ft in the Game Spirit) would be better suited to racing slightly wider with more room to attack his fences.
Following his victory in the Game Spirit, Lulamba has hardened as the favourite for the Arkle in the Antepost markets and that is entirely justified. He is unbeaten over fences, has won both a Grade 1 novice and a Grade 2 in open company. Ignore the statistics about 5-year-olds in the Arkle, there have been very few with the ability of Lulamba who have tried to win this race. He has the potential to be a top class performer over fences, but he does have an achilles heel. His jumping. If the connections of his main rivals were watching on Saturday (and I am sure that they were), they can’t have failed to notice that he does lose speed over his obstacles, especially when he is short of room and the cumulative effect of that in the Arkle could be telling. Given the current state of the weather, it seems unlikely that the festival will be run on anything quicker than soft ground and I think that will work in the favour of Lulamba as it is likely to blunt the speed of some of his rivals. Were the sun to make an appearance and dry the ground, it would probably increase his vulnerability. Does he deserve to be the Arkle favourite? Absolutely. Is he the most likely winner? Yes, but can he be beaten? Yes he can. He has the speed and all the ability needed, but if one of his rivals were to put in a fast and foot perfect round of jumping, it would put him under pressure and his rivals in March are likely to be quicker than those that he faced on Saturday afternoon.