Woodbine Mile Stakes - Grade 1
Woodbine - 12th September 2026
“In races like the Woodbine Mile, where the emphasis is on speed over stamina, Notable Speech is world class and he has to be considered to be one of the best to ever grace the Woodbine turf”.
Notable Speech made it back-to-back wins in Saturday’s Woodbine Mile under William Buick. On paper, this looked to be a stiffer task than when he got the better of My Boy Prince to win this race 12-months ago and a look at some of our pre-race metrics did suggest that the G1 Fourstardave Stakes winner Deterministic (Miguel Clement) would give him a stiffer test. Drawn low in stall 1, that is how the race panned out, with Deterministic setting some fair early fractions under Kendrick Carmouche, but when they turned for home, it became clear that Notable Speech was simply in a different league.
With 3 furlongs left to run, Deterministic had a head start of over half a second and considering that he is a multiple G1 winner who came into this race on the back of 6 consecutive victories, that could have been perceived to be a risky strategy from William Buick to give him so much rope in front. However, whilst he may be one of the best turf horses based in the US, Deterministic doesn’t often meet a horse with the turn-of-foot that Notable Speech possesses. A top speed of 66.6 km/h was a race best figure from Notable Speech and came in above our expected average figure for a winner over this course and distance in stakes company. It’s a similar story with his late speed figure, which was 2.2 km/h above the average winner’s figure, but whilst we have marvelled at the speed shown by Notable Speech on many occasions, I think it is very important to highlight that Deterministic wasn’t stopping in front. A finishing speed of 105.2% from Notable Speech was more than 3% faster than any of his rivals, but this pace wasn’t end-to-end and Deterministic ran his fastest furlong split of 11.17s in the penultimate furlong. Kendrick Carmouche had done his best to try and steady the pace into the far turn and Deterministic reached the 3 furlong pole in a time of 59.69s, nearly half a second slower than My Boy Prince had reached the same point in the race 12-months ago. Each of the 6 runners quickened into the penultimate furlong, but only one horse found true speed at that point and the 10.85s recorded for the 7th plot by Notable Speech was the only time that any of the runners ran below the 11s barrier and was a race best furlong by 0.32s. At an average of 23.44 ft, Notable Speech had one of the shortest strides in the field, but he lengthened to a peak average of 25.73 ft, an increase of 9.8%. That is exceptional, especially when compared to the increase of just 1.5% found by Deterministic. In races like the Woodbine Mile, where the emphasis is on speed over stamina, Notable Speech is world class and he has to be considered to be one of the best to ever grace the Woodbine turf.
Notable Speech has his limitations. His form at Royal Ascot hasn’t matched what he has achieved elsewhere, but he has one of the fastest turn-of-foot’s that I have seen from a miler, as he showed when winning the G1 City of York Stakes over 7 furlongs in August. A head start of over half a second in a steadily run race wasn’t enough to help a genuine Grade 1 performer like Deterministic to hold him off, which leaves the impression that Notable Speech will be very hard to beat if he gets a clear run at the Breeders’ Cup next month. Having retained his Woodbine Mile with some exceptional acceleration in the closing stages, he now looks highly likely to hold on to his Breeders’ Cup Mile in the same fashion at Keeneland.