The first all age Group 1 of the season, it was really good to see 9 of the 10 entries stand their ground for the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury on Saturday. I’ve looked through the data from TPD to provide a detailed profile of all 9-runners, but I’m also going to add the caveat that I will be sitting on the fence for this race. The data would suggest that the 4-year-olds are the ones to concentrate on and that should lead to Rosallion or possibly Notable Speech coming out on top. However, we haven’t seen either of them so far this season and I don’t like taking fitness on trust at this level. If there is a horse who is perhaps the “wrong” price, it could be Rosallion’s stablemate Persica, who has produced some eye-catching data on both starts so far this year, although the form book would suggest that he still has a lot to find. There’s a case to be made for at least 5 of the 9 runners from our data and so for now, this can only be a race to watch, even when it looks to be the strongest race run so far in the 2025 Flat season.
Checkandchallenge (William Knight). The only 6-year-old in the field, his last win came in November 2023 and although he ran some creditable races last season, including a 6th placed finish in the QEII at Ascot on Champions Day in October, he seems unlikely to suddenly make a breakthrough at this level. He finished 3rd in the Paradise Stakes last time, where he finished well with the fastest final furlong in the race at 12.03s and a better run-out speed than the winner (36.51 mph). That data would suggest that he is fit and well, but he was beaten just under 5-lengths and has at least 10lbs of improvement to find if he is to play a hand here. There are plenty of rivals who are open to far more improvement and in reality, if he finishes in the first 5, he has run a nice race.
Dancing Gemini (Roger Teal). A revelation this season, Dancing Gemini comes into this race on the back of impressive victories in both the Doncaster Mile and the Bet365 Mile at Sandown. He beat Checkandchallenge at Doncaster, where he finished well in furlongs of 11.54 and 12.02s and a run-out speed of 34.36 mph, the best in the field. That race perhaps gave him an edge at Sandown, but having been well placed there are perhaps a couple of doubts over the form from the data. Having chased the leaders, he was ideally placed when Haatem began to fade and both the 2nd and 3rd placed horses, who raced towards the rear, were faster than him in the final furlong and recorded better run-out speeds. A finishing speed of 104%, would suggest that he was perfectly placed and he may find the straight course at Newbury will expose any weaknesses in that form, even allowing for the fact that he has clearly improved as a 4-year-old.
Lead Artist (John & Thady Gosden). Won 3 times last season but will need to leave his comeback run far behind him if he is to make a breakthrough at this level. Chased the leaders at Sandown but unlike Dancing Gemini, he failed to pick up when asked to and he lost 1.90s on the winner over the final quarter of a mile. Should clearly improve for the run and is almost certainly better than that form would suggest, but will need to as a top speed of 37.45 mph at Sandown saw him ranked 7th of 8 in the field.
Notable Speech (Charlie Appleby). The winner of the 2,000 Guineas and the Sussex Stakes in 2024, this looks to be an obvious place for Notable Speech to start his 4-year-old campaign. He finished 3rd in the Breeders’ Cup Mile at Del Mar in November, but having been slowly away, taking 12.36s to reach the 7-furlong pole (ranked 9th of 10) he was further back than ideal and had to make his ground around the turn to get into contention. Holding every chance at the furlong pole, he was run down by the patiently ridden winner (More Than Looks) in a race run with a finishing speed of 98%. He ran the fastest final furlong at both Newmarket and Goodwood last season and if ready to go after a break, he is a danger to all.
Persica (Richard Hannon). The horse to take from the Winter Derby where he ran the fastest 9th furlong in 11.43s, Persica duly obliged in Group 3 company at Newmarket. That was a run at an even gallop with a finishing speed of 100%, but he clocked the best top speed at 38.18 mph and was the only horse to run a sub 12-second furlong when he ran 11.91s for the 8th furlong. That was enough to see off the Godolphin pair of Ottoman Fleet and First Conquest. This demands more, but there is some hope to be gleaned from the data of his 8th placed finish in the Champion Stakes at Ascot in October, where he ran the fastest 8th and 9th furlongs after being forced to challenge wide (13.16, 12.53s). He wasn’t able to sustain that effort, but it would suggest that he could be capable of running a big race in Group 1 company and a strongly run mile should suit. He is a lively outsider if getting a pace to track.
Prague (Dylan Cunha). A lightly raced 5-year-old, he won the Joel Stakes at Newmarket in September and is best forgiven his run in the QEII behind Charyn at the end of last season. He was the fastest finisher in the Joel Stakes, where he clocked 11.72 and 13.15s for the final 2-furlongs and is worth a try at this level. On a form line through the runner-up, Poker Face, he may well be capable of hitting the frame in a Group 1, but the speed data would suggest that a mile is the minimum trip that he requires and on fast ground, he may well be outpaced before staying on at the finish. A stiffer track, possibly Ascot next month, may see him in a better light.
Rosallion (Richard Hannon). Although we haven’t seen him since June, the data from Rosallion’s victory in the St James’ Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot would suggest that he is worth his place at the head of the market. The fastest horse on the speed clock at 40.65 mph, he ran the fastest individual splits for the 6th, 7th and 8th furlongs, finishing his race in 34.56s with the best run-out speed in the field at 36.4 mph. That came around the bend at Ascot and we are taking his fitness on trust, but his stride length reached a peak average of 7.45m in the latter stages of the St James’ Palace Stakes and this race should setup perfectly for him.
Fallen Angel (Karl Burke). The winner of the Irish 1,000 Guineas last season, Fallen Angel has won 4 of her 8 career starts and although she was 4th in the Prix de L’Opera on her last start, that came on soft ground at Paris Longchamp and she finished her race with furlongs of 11.37 and 11.85s, just 0.03s slower than the winner Friendly Soul. That form, with her sex allowance, would suggest that she will have a chance here. However, if there is a concern it would be that she needed her first run last season, when 8th in the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket, where she was 1.17s slower than the winner in the final quarter of a mile. At the time of writing, Karl Burke is operating at a 10% strike rate (3 wins from 29-runners) and it will be interesting to see how her price moves in the market to look for clues as to her readiness.
Tamfana (David Menuisier). A Group 1 winner in the Sun Chariot Stakes at Newmarket last season, Tamfana was the horse to note from the data in the Bet365 Mile at Sandown last time. Wearing a red hood to post, Oisin Murphy was keen to keep her settled and a result she raced towards the rear. However, she closed well, running 11.95 and 12.85s for the final 2-furlongs and recorded a run-out speed of 32.19 mph, all of which was faster than Dancing Gemini. If we assume that she will improve for her first run since October, then she looks likely to get much closer to Dancing Gemini. She was 3rd behind Charyn in the QEII in October and although she was no match for the winner, she did record the fastest top speed in the field at 38.65 mph and should have the necessary speed to keep herself in touch with the leaders. Even with her 3 lb allowance, she has improvement to find and she is yet to win a race against the boys, but she will improve from her return and looks the more likely challenger from that Bet365 Mile form line.
You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the At The Races RESULTS page.
The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.