Breeders’ Cup Countdown
“Can Sierra Leone retain his crown in the Classic?”
Yes.
Clearly we need to expand slightly on that answer, but there is enough in the data to suggest that Sierra Leone retains the ability that he showed 12-months ago. I’m going to start by stating that we need to ignore his latest run. The incident at the start involving Mindframe in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Saratoga cost him any chance and it is best to simply draw a line through that effort. To his enormous credit, he ran on to finish 2nd behind Antiquarian, running the fastest split in the field for 3 of the final 4 furlongs and recording a race best run-out speed of 34.52 mph. He did well to avoid the trouble at the start of the race and it shouldn’t detract from what was another decent performance in Grade 1 company, but I would much prefer to focus on his victory in the Whitney Stakes in early August as a guide to his Breeders’ Cup Classic chances.
An initial look at the data above would suggest that he ground out this victory. A top speed of 38.7 mph ranked him last of the 9 runners and if taken in isolation, that statistic might suggest that he was able to pick up the pieces when the pace collapsed in the latter stages. He certainly finished the race strongly, running the fastest final 2 furlongs (12.10, 12.45s) and recording the best run-out speed in the field at 33.93 mph. However, a race finishing speed of 98.5% would suggest otherwise and the fact that there were 4 other horses who recorded a run-out speed within 1 mph of Sierra Leone’s would suggest that this wasn’t a case of “survival of the fittest”. On his last 3 starts, the races have had finishing speeds of 99.4%, 98.5% and 99.1% and I would argue that Sierra Leone, who recorded the longest average stride length in the field in the Whitney Stakes at 25.10 ft, is better suited by a race run with a faster early gallop. If we make the assumption that he has been running well in races where the pace has not suited his style, then ought we also be able to assume that in a better race, with better horses and a faster gallop, he will improve again? I thought it was significant that in the home stretch of the Whitney Stakes, Flavien Prat used the persuader just 3 of 4 times and just once in the final furlong. Once his mount was in full stride, there was no need to ask for anything more as Sierra Leone came past Highland Falls with relative ease. Now clearly Highland Falls is unlikely to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic and there are certainly tougher opponents ahead, but if he won the Whitney Stakes with something in hand, then there are plenty of reasons for optimism when he returns to Del Mar in November.
The data shown above is a direct comparison between Sierra Leone and Fierceness from the Breeders’ Cup Classic in 2024. Once again the top speed figure can be slightly misleading given that Sierra Leone ranked 9th for that metric, but in a better race, I would argue that the data suggests that the winner produced the best performance of his career, especially in the latter stages of the contest. The data above is comparing him to Fierceness, a horse who came into the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic having already won a Florida Derby and a Travers Stakes during his 3-year-old campaign. At the time, he was arguably the best horse that Sierra Leone had faced and yet the difference between the pair in the home straight at Del Mar is stark. The sweeping move made by Flavien Prat around the home turn was a sight to behold and once in front, he had the better of Fierceness, with the subsequent Saudi Cup winner Forever Young a further length and a quarter back in 3rd. It’s easy to forget just how strong that form is and having been brought back as a 4-year-old, presumably with this race as the main target for the entire campaign, if he peaks again in November, he is the horse that sets the standard. The “Elephant in the room” is Sovereignty. He is probably the best 3-year-old to have run in the US in the last 5 years and having beaten everything that his own generation has thrown at him, it is likely to take a monumental effort for Sierra Leone to give weight away to him in the Classic. However, last year’s race, which had a race finishing speed of 95.8% and a winning time that was over 2s faster than White Abarrio the year before, brought out the best in Sierra Leone. He will need to produce another career best to beat Sovereignty, but the data suggests that an opponent of that quality may help him to do so.