2:10 Ladbrokes Handicap
If you back every horse that Andrew Balding runs in races over 6 and 7 furlongs at Chester, you make a tidy profit of £49.71 to a £1 stake, but there is much more than just that statistic to like about the chances of Never So Brave. He will make his stable debut for Andrew Balding on Saturday, but he won’t be the first horse to be well fancied this season after leaving the now retired Sir Michael Stoute. He was a winner here in May last season and the data from that victory would suggest that he could be a danger to all on his seasonal return. He broke well that day, taking 6.2s which got him into a prominent position, and he was perfectly placed turning into the straight under Ryan Moore as a result. Once asked for an effort, he responded readily to run the fastest final furlong in 11.70s. He went on to finish 6th in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot on his next start and although his form tailed off afterwards, he had a busy 3-year-old season and should be better now with the benefit of a break over the winter.
2:45 – British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes
This is a 6-furlong race for the 2-year-olds and it gives us another chance to see Tricky Tel, who was an impressive winner here earlier in the month. Despite racing at the front of the field, he finished his race strongly with a run-out speed of 36.33 mph and he should be more than capable of staying the extra furlong here. If there is a slight doubt, it is that he now has 6 lbs to concede to his rivals and he is drawn widest of all in stall 8. However, he took just 5.8s to reach 30 mph from the stalls last time and that early speed should allow him to get across into a prominent position. A couple of horses that chased him home last time have won since and he would look to be the most likely winner. However, this is not a simple assignment and there are a couple of dangers drawn closer to the rail.
The first is the newcomer, Come on Over. He is a Kodiac Colt who runs in the Amo Racing colours and cost 200,000 guineas at the sales as a yearling. Richard Fahey operates at a 13% strike rate with his Juveniles at Chester and any market support would need to be noted. Inside him, drawn against the rail, is Full Gas. Kevin Ryan has a good record with his 2-year-olds at Chester, operating at a 20% strike rate and if you backed all of those runners, you would make a profit of £16.83 to a £1 stake. Full Gas blew the start at York, taking 7s to reach 30 mph and he was never able to get on terms as a result. However, at an average of 23.92 ft, he had one of the shortest strides in the field and wasn’t able to deal with the long straight at York. A switch to a turning track, where his higher average stride frequency of 2.11 per second should be more suitable, he should put in a better performance and could be a nice each-way alternative to Tricky Tel.
5:35 Going is Good Handicap (Div II)
Yellow Card has won his last 2 races and isn’t dismissed lightly in his bid for a hat-trick. He won nicely at Salisbury last time where he made good late progress, running the final quarter of a mile in 24.20s. He is clearly in top form, but he has weight to concede to the rest of the field, is drawn in stall 1 which can make things harder for a horse who is normally ridden to come with a late run and he drops down in trip. All of that raises doubts about him and for that reason, he could be worth opposing. Pride of Donegal makes some appeal on his handicap debut, but he was caught out for speed on his latest start at Newcastle and having been off the track since January, he would be entitled to need this run.
For that reason, there is some each-way appeal for Arkinthestars. She was a winner at Ripon in April, where she finished her race strongly and galloped through the winning line with a run-out speed of 33.64 mph. She couldn’t back that up at Thirsk, but that race was falsely run with a finishing speed of 115% and she paid for making a move in the middle of the race to try and make ground, a move that included the fastest 9th furlong in the race in 13.12s. She’s able to run here on the same mark on Saturday and should get this run to suit under the excellent Silvestre de Sousa.