Chester Preview - 3rd August
This Sunday sees the Queensferry Stakes take centre stage on a 7-race card at Chester racecourse. I have looked through some of the data from the card and picked out several horses that look to have solid chances.
Sundays card gets underway at 2:10 with a 12-furlong handicap. Respire Solitario is the obvious place to start. He has won his last 2 starts and arrives here after a dominant display at Ffos Las, where he ran the fastest final quarter of a mile in 23.41s to win by a length and a quarter. This is definitely a deep race, but he has a good draw in stall 2 and should be able to give another good account of himself. However, in a deeper race, he will need to find more early speed and a peak average stride length of 24.18 ft at Ffos Las ranked him in midfield. There are several horses in this race that like to go forwards and so it seems fairly certain that this will be run at a decent pace. Mafting was disappointing at Royal Ascot, but he was hampered in the home straight and although he was unlikely to have won the King George V Stakes regardless, he was better than the bare result and is worth forgiving. He traveled perfectly into the home stages and this speed based track should be more to his liking. A top speed figure of 42.37 mph at Ascot saw him ranked 3rd of the 19-runner field and he should be able to use that speed to good effect behind the pace set by the likes of Respire Solitario and Ghaiyya. His earlier form at Redcar has worked out well and after just 4 starts, David O’Meara’s charge is open to any amount of improvement from a handicap mark of 83. His expected stride length figure is only surpassed by Ghaiyya and she appeared to have reached her ceiling when only 9th at Ascot in July. If David Nolan can settle him behind the leaders from stall 7, he should be able to improve past this field in the latter stages.
There are some interesting pedigrees on show in the maiden race at 2:40, but with all 5 runners making their debut, it can only be a watching race at this point. The Bridgman Nursery at 3:20 features 4 horses who finished as runner-up on their latest start. Lucky Hero, Rejjien and Sporting Light all had their chance last time without winning and although the latter is consistent, he is too keen in the early stages of his races to make him a reliable bet. Somebody is yet to win in 5 starts, but the form of his latest starts has worked out extremely well and although he was turned over at a short price at Chelmsford on his latest start, the winner, 3rd and 4th have all won since and I think he is likely to prove to be better than his current mark of 73. He ran the fastest opening furlong in 14.16s that day under Oisin Murphy and if he can show the same early speed from stall 2, he should be in the ideal position on Sunday. He only finished 7th here at the May meeting, but I can easily forgive that given his inexperience at that stage and the fact that he raced wide throughout. If he can repeat the level of form that he showed at Chelmsford, where he ranked in the top 2 for 4 of the 6-furlong splits, it should be enough.
The Queensferry Stakes at 3:52 is the Listed feature race on the card and there are several exciting 3-year-old prospects. Celandine shaped like a filly that would improve for the benefit of her first start for 10-months when she finished 3rd at York last month. Her opening furlongs of 13.54 and 10.65s were ranked 3rd and 2nd in the 11-runner field, which got her to the front. Although she was outpaced in the 5th furlong, she recovered to finish 3rd with a run-out speed of 34 mph. On the best of her 2-year-old form, she would be very competitive on these terms, but I can’t help but think that she is likely to set the race up for the highly progressive Kassaya. Andrew Balding has a 22% strike rate on the Roodee in the last 12-months and his 3-year-old daughter of Kingman was so impressive when winning the Battaash handicap at Sandown last time that I was keen not to oppose her from a good draw on Sunday. She made smooth headway from the rear at Sandown, running the fastest penultimate furlong in the field in 11.33s to come from last to first to win by three-quarters of a length. She recorded a top speed of 41.34 mph up the Sandown hill and provided she gets racing room here, she should be hard to beat in the latter stages.
Our final selection comes in the Inkerman London Handicap at 4:52 with Bobby Bennu. Roger Varian’s charge has been steadily running himself into form and although he was ultimately beaten at Haydock when 2nd to King’s Lynn, he showed a lot of promise to suggest that his turn is coming. Having come off the bridle at the top of the straight, he responded well to pressure, recording the fastest penultimate furlong in the race in 12.18s as he hit the front. He was caught in the final 50-yards, but he had the fastest run-out speed in the field at 32.39 mph and with over a length back to the 3rd, he showed more than enough to suggest that he can win off his current mark. Silvestre De Sousa has a good draw in stall 4 to work with and we know that he will handle the track because he is already a course and distance winner here (June 2024). Flaming Rib, Palmar Bay and Legal Reform are all drawn inside him and should ensure that this race is run at a strong pace. If we assume that he breaks on terms, he should be ideally placed to take advantage of that pace in the closing stages.