Welcome to the 2025 Chester Cup meeting. Racing returns to the Roudee for 3-days of top class racing that will be live on both ITV and Sky Sports Racing. The week culminates in the Chester Cup on Friday afternoon, but before we get there we have some fascinating races on Wednesday and Thursday. Here is a look through the data from TPD for a couple of those races and the conclusions that we can draw from it.
Wednesday 7th May
2:35 Weatherbys ePassport Cheshire Oaks (Listed Race)
That’s Amore, Minnie Hauk and Queen of Thieves look to be the 3 to concentrate on. I’ll start with Minnie Hauk, who broke her maiden tag at the 2nd time of asking when winning on soft ground at Leopardstown in October. It’s hard to be entirely sure what this daughter of Frankel achieved there as the field behind her are 1 from 8 since, but she showed a good attitude and was always holding the runner-up in the final furlong. At 6.73m, her stride was the longest in the field, which would suggest that she will be more than capable of staying this far, but with a top speed of 36.57 mph there must surely be doubts about whether this track will suit. That’s Amore won as she liked on debut at Newbury in the Autumn, making all of the running and pulling clear to win by 6-lengths. She broke well, taking 6.6s to reach 30 mph and she hit the line strongly with the best run-out speed in the field at 32.79 mph. She needs to prove that she can handle the tighter turns at Chester and that a sounder surface will be suitable. However, she was very impressive on debut and looks more than capable of running well in pattern company if ready to go for her seasonal return.
There is every chance that the Ralph Beckett trained That’s Amore could be a top class 3-year-old, but the data from TPD would certainly offer me some hope that the early prices are wrong and I’d probably make Queen of Thieves a slight favourite. Although she took 3 attempts to get off the mark, her first 2 starts for the Gosden team came over inadequate tests of stamina and once she stepped up to this distance at Yarmouth, we saw a marked improvement. It was only a 4-runner race and the fact that she was 11-lengths clear of the runner-up raises doubts over the form. However, she readily quickened clear under Kieran Shoemark and a top speed figure of 41.16 mph would suggest that she has the necessary speed if this becomes a tactical race. Shoemark’s post-race interview implied that he felt a Flat track would be best for her to help her to stay balanced and that probably explains why she is coming here rather than going to an Oaks trial at York or Lingfield, but if she got into a good rhythm, there is every chance that she will have too much speed for her rivals.
Thursday 8th May
3:05 – Ladbrokes Big Value You Can Bet On Ormonde Stakes (Group 3)
A small field is going to post and if there is a standout on form, it has to be Illinois. Already a winner over this distance, his form last season with the likes of Sosie, Los Angeles and Jan Brueghel would suggest he is a Group 1 performer. Although he was beaten on his comeback last season, that came on what was just his 3rd racecourse start and if he can match the levels of form that he showed when winning the Queen’s Vase and the Prix de Chaudenay at Paris Longchamp last season, it should be enough to win this. Although clearly a strong strayer at this trip, he recorded closing furlongs of 11.92 and 12.27s in Paris in October, clocking a top speed of 37.7 mph in the process to suggest that he will have the necessary turn-of-foot if this develops into a tactical race. That thought can be backed up by the data from his victory in the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot, where he led the field with a top speed of 38.92 mph after being the 2nd fastest horse to the first furlong pole in 17.14s. Ryan Moore should have no difficulty getting into a handy position and I have very little doubt that by the end of the season, Illinois will be considered the best horse in this race. However, he has to concede weight to his rivals as a result of his Group 2 heroics last season and having been off the track since October, this race is likely to be a stepping stone to bigger targets later in the Summer. As we saw at the Guineas festival last weekend, several of Aiden O’Briens horses needed their first run of the season to get to peak fitness. His class may get him home, but at what is likely to be a short price he would seem to be worth opposing at this early point in the year.
Part of the reason for being confident with Illinois is the amount of doubt that can be raised over some of his rivals. Mondo Man had some very smart form on the Flat in France, but he has been extremely keen in his hurdle races this winter and has pulled his chance away as a result. In a small field on his return to the flat, there is every chance that he will do the same thing and it’s very hard to be confident that he will run his race as a result. Roaring Legend rattled off a hat-trick on the All-Weather over the winter, but he was disappointing on Finals Day at Newcastle, where he could only finish 6th after losing 1.81s on the winner over the final quarter of a mile. He did take just 6s to reach 30 mph from the stalls that day and there is every chance that he will be the pacemaker in this field, but both his victories on turf have come at a much lower level and he seems unlikely to be able to hold off the classier types.
Mount Atlas should also be one of the early pace angles in this contest. He took just 5.2s to get to 30 mph at Kempton in March and although he ultimately finished 4th, he did record the best run-out speed in the field (33.22 mph) to suggest that he will stay this far. However, he is also keen and pulls hard, which won’t make things easy for Oisin Murphy, especially if he has competition for the lead from Roaring Legend. Al Qareem is a solid horse at this level, but his victory in the Further Flight Stakes at Nottingham would offer only limited hope. That was a tactical race with a finishing speed of 107% and given that the 2nd and 3rd have both been soundly beaten since, there are enough doubts to pass him over this time.
Although Absurde has been running mainly over hurdles so far this year, he has already won over this course and distance last summer, where he recorded a top speed of 39.75 mph to get the better of Caius Chorister. The gaps came at the right time that day, but he sauntered through along the inside of the field as they entered the straight and having been shaken up, he recorded the fastest final 2-furlongs in the field with closing splits of 12.0 and 11.65s. He is a Cheltenham festival winner and the winner of the Ebor at York in 2023 and arriving here on the back of a successful hurdles campaign that culminated in a victory in the Sussex Champion Hurdle at Plumpton over Easter, he is a big danger to all. The presence of Mount Atlas and Roaring Legend should ensure that this is a decent test of stamina despite the relatively small field, in receipt of 5lbs with race fitness on his side, this could be the day to be with Absurde.
You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the At The Races RESULTS page.
The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.