Dubai Creek Mile Sponsored by Nakheel
“Mendelssohn Bay”
Mendelssohn Bay does have a very good record on the Dirt at Meydan, especially in the earlier part of the season, but it’s also fair to say that this performance was a career best effort from Bhupat Seemar’s 4-year-old. He won the maiden on this card in 2023 and was victorious in December last season in the Dubai Islands Conditions race, but a closer examination of his form will also show that he won the UAE Guineas and was 4th behind Forever Young in the UAE Derby in 2024. If we take that form in its literal sense, then he certainty wasn’t winning this Listed contest out of turn, but to win by 6 lengths and leave last year’s winner toiling in 2nd? That level of form was harder to predict.
Silvestre De Sousa did his best to get Meshtri a 2nd win in this race, driving his mount forward when the stalls opened with an opening furlong of 13.46s (ranked 1st) after reaching 30 mph in 5.4s. Whether or not that made a significant difference is hard to measure, but his average stride frequency peaked in that opening furlong and after being the fastest horse as far as the 3 furlong pole, he had very little left to offer when the winner swept past off the home turn. If we examine the rankings of Mendelssohn Bay, we find that he ranked 1st for furlongs 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7, all of which came with the benefit of having Meshtri on his inside to set the race up for him. An average stride length of 24.59 ft also ranked 1st and was considerably longer than the 23.16 ft recorded by the runner-up. That stride length was the key in a race run with a finishing speed of 92.8% where stamina became key. Mendelssohn Bay recorded the longest average stride length figures in the field for the final 2 furlong splits and the best late speed average of 33.72 mph. The level of form shown by Bhupat Seemar’s horse should not be underestimated and visually he appeared to have strengthened significantly since we last saw him. However, as good as this was, I do need to add a couple of small footnotes to this form. Firstly, it should be noted that Mendelssohn Bay has won on his seasonal return in each of the last 3 seasons and yet he has failed to build on that on his 2nd start. Secondly, when winning this race 12-months ago, Meshtri had the benefit of a run under his belt in a handicap 2-weeks earlier and as such, he would be entitled to improve for his first run since January. Having set such a fast early pace, he did remarkably well to remain in contention for so long and showed a very willing attitude to hold the late challenge for 2nd place and actually produced a better run-out speed than the winner (30.58 mph). Mendelssohn Bay was eased down by Richard Mullen as he crossed the line which needs to be taken into account, but there is still a sense from the data that Meshtri will improve with race fitness on his side. I don’t want to make any excuses because Mendelssohn Bay was a clear best on the day, but there is at least a case for the runner-up closing the gap if they meet again.
Castle Warden does stand out on the closing figures. He ran the fastest final furlong in 13.61s and had the best run-out speed in the field at 31.76 mph. Visually, he is closing all the way to the line and on just his 3rd start in Dubai and his first since March, he would also be entitled to take a step forward from this. However, the fast pace set by the 2 leaders meant that they were slowing significantly and as such, the race did set up for a horse to close on them in the latter stages. Whilst both Mendelssohn Bay and Meshtri recorded their peak stride frequency averages in the opening furlong, Castle Warden reached his in the 5th furlong and as such, he had more energy left to make that closing run. He is relatively lightly raced as a 5-year-old and there may yet be more to come, but there is a need for a slight note of caution about his finishing effort and the reasons for it.