Jamie Osborne is rolling the big dice with Heart of Honor at Pimlico on Saturday when he takes his chance in the 2nd leg of the American Triple Crown, the Preakness Stakes. The winner of the Kentucky Derby, Sovereignty, is absent, so there isn’t a Triple Crown bid being made this year. The markets would suggest that this is a penalty kick for the runner-up, Journalism, but what about the chances of a British-trained upset.
Well the first point to make is that we can be fairly certain that the trip will suit. Heart of Honor ran very well in Dubai last season, finishing 2nd in both the Al Bastakiya and the UAE Derby over 9-furlongs. Admire Daytona didn’t do a great deal to advertise that form in the Kentucky Derby, but he is a speedy type who uses his early pace to control his races and so the race at Churchill Downs wasn’t likely to suit. The data from the UAE Derby would suggest that Heart of Honor was an unlucky loser, having run a faster final furlong than the winner in 13.84s (Admire Daytona 13.97s) and producing a better run-out speed at 30.94 mph. Being drawn close to American Promise, one of the most likely pace angles in the Preakness Stakes, should give him something to aim at and he should finish his race well as a result. He doesn’t have the size of some of the American runners. TPD recorded an average stride length of 23.88 ft for him in the UAE Derby and for comparison, Journalism has recorded an average of 25.13 ft in the Santa Anita Derby and 25.66 ft in the Derby. However, he reached a top speed of 42.01 mph in the Al Bastakiya in February and the tighter turns at Pimlico might actually help him to conserve some energy for the home stretch.
The start will be the key. In a field of 9-runners, there is a much smaller likelihood of a pace collapse and it will be important for Saffie Osborne to get him away from the gate on terms. At Meydan in March, he took 6s to reach 30 mph and ran opening splits of 19.58 and 11.37s, which was 0.99s slower than Admire Daytona. Against better horses who will stay the trip, he is unlikely to be able to make up as much ground as he did in Dubai, especially in the shorter home straight at Pimlico. The data would suggest that he needs to be ahead of the likes of Journalism and Goal Oriented when they turn for home if he is going to come out on top. That may still not be not enough, but his Dubai form does at least suggest that he has a chance of hitting the frame.