How good is Diva Luna?
Eventmasters.co.uk Lady Godiva Mares’ Novices’ Chase (Listed Race)
It can be very hard to assess the form of a 3-runner race. It’s a shame that we had such a small field going to post in the Lady Godiva at Warwick on Thursday and when analysing the times I think it is very important to make the point that this race was run with a finishing speed of 107% for the winner. This race has largely been run on Soft or Heavy ground in recent years and if we compare the winning time of Diva Luna (5:17.23) she does return a slightly faster time than the last 4 winners on that ground (The Glancing Queen, Zambella, Sensulano and Briery Belle). In such a small field, that’s a good sign, especially given that Diva Luna barely came off the bridle in the home straight. Following this win, her trainer Ben Pauling discussed the possibility of running her in the Scilly Isles Chase at Sandown against the boys in the new year. So what can we learn from the data about her chances of taking that step into Grade 1 company?
I’ll start by comparing her to the other 2 mares in the race, Blue Las and Wyenot. She had the longest stride in the field and although the others did record better stride frequency figures, I think it’s important to recognise that they were both driven for more in the closing stages at a time when Diva Luna was simply hacking round in Ben Jones’ hands. She ranked 1st for her top speed (32.70 mph), 1st for her late speed (30.67 mph) and recorded a run-out speed of 30.15 mph when being eased down. Had she needed to, I have no doubt that she could have found more if needed and there is undoubtedly more improvement to come. That’s all well and good, but Diva Luna was the highest rated of the 3 and the fact that Wyenot didn’t appear to run her race means that she has barely run to that mark if we take the performance of the runner-up literally. However, this was one of 3 chases on the Warwick card and there is a solid comparison to be made between Diva Luna and Chuggy, who completed a hat-trick over fences for the Skeltons in the 2-mile handicap chase earlier on the card.
Chuggy has an official rating of 115 and he did carry 3 lbs more, but he is highly progressive and ran out a comfortable 12 length winner. He ran the final mile of the contest in 2:01.36 with closing furlongs of 15.25 and 16.17s after making all of the running. Diva Luna was faster, running her final mile in 2:00.62, a difference of 0.74s with the fastest final quarter of a mile on the card (29.17s). Chuggy recorded a finishing speed of 99% and as such, Diva Luna should have had more energy left in the closing stages, but to run at a pace faster than the 2 milers bodes well. Perhaps more significantly, the runner-up (Blue Las) ran her final mile in 2:01.20 and would have been competitive in the handicap chase on that basis. In a small field like this it is never an exact science, but the late speed data does at least suggest that Diva Luna will have the necessary speed to be competitive in a better race.
I was also impressed by her jumping. After a couple of slow leaps in the early stages, she warmed to her task and took 3 lengths out of Wyenot at the fence halfway down the back straight on the final circuit. In truth, neither of her rivals seemed capable of getting her off the bridle and as such her jumping faced very little pressure, but she maintained the gallop into the closing stages and on just her 2nd start over fences, it would also be fair to say that there is probably further improvement to come. She was a progressive novice hurdler last season, a campaign that included a 3rd placed finish in the Mares’ Novices’ hurdle at the Cheltenham festival and whilst she was found out against the boys in the Top Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree behind Salvator Mundi, I think the ground had turned against her at that point. She would appear to be the best mare in the novice chase division in the UK and at a time when the overall pool of British novice chase prospects looks particularly shallow, there is every reason to think that she will be competitive against the boys if indeed she does head to Sandown. Although we have very limited evidence, it is perhaps fair to say that she would prefer to have slightly softer conditions to be seen at her best, but the chances of getting that at Sandown are fairly high. Everything that she did at Warwick on Thursday helped to enhance her reputation and I have nothing but positives to add.