DragonBet Persian War Novices’ Hurdle (G2)
"Sticktotheplan takes the Persian War”
Olly Murphy and the Not One But Two partners were immediately rewarded for their Summer acquisition of Sticktotheplan, a 5-year-old son of Great Pretender, as he ran out a 4 length winner of the Grade 2 Persian War Novices’ hurdle on the opening day of the DragonBet Welsh Racing festival at Chepstow. Sent off at odds of 15/2, he made smooth headway as the runners approached the 2nd last before being driven out to get the better of the Gordon Elliott trained Kainsbourg on the run-in. The winner of the Listed Colm Quinn BMW Novice Hurdle at the Galway festival in July, he carried a 5 lb penalty on Friday afternoon for that success, but it wasn’t enough to stop him as he recorded a winning time of 4:46.93. That time ranks just 8th of the last 10 renewals of the Persian War, but a finishing speed of 103% and a time that was only 5.09s outside the TPD expected time for the grade would still look to support the theory that this was an above average renewal of this race. Both the winner and the runner-up had the benefit of race fitness on their side and that was perhaps a contributing factor in the finish given that the first 4 jumped the 2nd last within a length of each other. However, having closed his race with furlong splits of 13.10 and 15.64s, both of which were the fastest in the race, there was no fluke about this performance from Sticktotheplan, especially when we factor in that he was conceding 5 lbs to the rest of the field.
The winner received a clever ride from Sean Bowen, whose mount reached his race peak average stride frequency of 2.24 per second in the penultimate furlong, allowing him to quicken away from his rivals after jumping the penultimate flight. Although sent off at an SP of 20/1, Kainsbourg came into this race with an official rating of 127 after a recent victory at Listowel and yet Sticktotheplan has readily pulled away from him in the closing stages, coming home in a time 1.02s faster than the runner-up over the final quarter of a mile. If we were to take this form literally, he has at the very least run to his official rating of 135 by giving weight a 4 length beating the runner-up. Olly Murphy chose to apply the hood for the first time on Friday afternoon a combination of the headgear and the patient ride in the early stages must surely have helped to keep him settled, but at 36.22 mph Sticktotheplan was the fastest horse in the race on the speedometer and he is the horse around which the early season Novice hurdle form will now be measured.
David Maxwell has recently retired from the saddle and the charismatic amateur will be a big miss from the National Hunt scene this season. His horses are due to go under the hammer in a dispersal sale at Cheltenham later this month. As part of that sale, organised by Tattersalls, he gave a recent interview in which he announced that Harry Derham had urged him not to retire because he had lined up Queensbury Boy for this race. As a result of that, a small frenzy ensued on social media which resulted in Queensbury Boy being sent off a short-priced favourite for this race. Whilst we aren’t here to debate the merits of that market support, there is a sense of anti-climax about the performance of Harry Derham’s charge, who trailed in a tired 4th, beaten just over 11 lengths. Holding his head slightly to his right, he didn’t look entirely comfortable in Paul O’Brien’s hands and when asked to close in the home straight, his jumping let him down and the front 2 pulled away. In the early part of the race, he had the most efficient jumping technique in the field, losing an average of just 3.6% of his speed over his over his obstacles in the early and middle parts of the race. However, that figure increased to 10.2% in the latter stages, a figure only exceeded by the tailed off Kilwaughter. Overall, he lost an average of 5.8% of his speed at his hurdles, the best average figure in the field, but I think that it is significant that his technique let him down when the pace lifted and it will need to improve if he is to make his mark over hurdles. He recorded the longest average stride length in the field (22.41 ft) and in time will surely jump a fence, but having won races in March he won’t be a novice over hurdles for too much longer and things will get more difficult in open company if he stays hurdling this season. Whilst fitness may well have played a part, at this stage, it is fair to say that Queensbury Boy did not live up to the pre-race hype.
The data might create a slight sense of pessimism about the beaten favourite, but the same cannot be said for the 3rd placed Moneygarrow, trained by Dan Skelton. Despite drifting out to an SP of 11/1, having opened at 13/2 and been as big as 20/1 earlier in the day, I thought he ran a fine race on his hurdles debut under Harry Skelton. Settled towards the rear, he made good progress as he ran the fastest 17th furlong in the race to jump the 2nd last on terms with the leader. Although left behind by the race fit winner, he rallied after the last and recorded the fastest run-out speed in the field at 27.54 mph. His jumping held together reasonably well and only the winner produced a more efficient average speed lost in the closing stages than the 7.7% recorded for Moneygarrow. The pair have actually met before in a point-to-point at Borris House in 2024, a race won by Moneygarrow after Sticktotheplan came down at the 2nd last when making headway. Given the way he finished the race, he should improve for the benefit of this first experience, especially given that he made his debut at this level. The winner was having his 5th start over hurdles and had the benefit of a summer campaign in Ireland on his side, so it is not impossible to think that with time and experience on his side, Moneygarrow might reverse this form in the future.
DragonBet “Welsh Champion” Hurdle (Limited Handicap)
For the second year in a row Sam Thomas and Dan Walters could celebrate success in the Welsh Champion hurdle, this time with the 6-year-old Celtic Dino. He has now won 5 of his 9 starts and took this early season prize despite being burdened with top weight. Well supported in the market and sent off at an SP of 6/4, he traveled strongly behind the early pace before being asked to make his challenge as the field approached the 3rd from home. At an average length of 22.64 ft, Celtic Dino recorded the longest stride in the field and he was able to put that stride to good use in the straight after moving to the front with 3 furlongs to run. Having the stands rail to run alongside was certainly an aid to his cause, but despite looking like both Wilful (3rd) and Alexei (2nd) were coming with their respective challenges, he continued to find more when asked to by Dylan Johnston and the fact the he recorded the fastest run-out speed in the field (31.47 mph) would support my theory that he had his rivals covered if they had managed to get alongside.
An initial look at the replay might suggest that his jumping needs to improve, especially given that he flattened the last flight and appeared to land on all fours. However, the Jumping fluency data from TPD shows that his efficiency over his hurdles, particularly in the closing stages, were the key to this victory and despite meeting a couple of flights on the wrong stride, he lost very little momentum when compared to his rivals. Over the entire race, he lost an average of 5.5% of his speed over his obstacles, which ranked him 3rd of the 8 runners. However, this can be split into 3 sections, early (4.7%), middle (5.4%) and late (6.4%). If we compare those individual figures to the data for the runner-up, Alexei, who recorded speed lost averages of 5.4%, 5.8% and 9%, we can see the clear difference between the pair once the pace lifted in the latter stages. For comparison purposes I will add that the 3rd placed Wilful, who appeared to be coming with a significant challenge as they approached the 2nd last, recorded Jumps fluency figures of 5.1%, 3.5% and 7.1%. The ability to maintain his jumping technique in the latter stages of the race has ultimately proved the key for Celtic Dino and with a longer stride, he proved very hard to pass once getting to the front with the rail. After winning this race 12 months ago, Sam Thomas’ sent Lump Sum to the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth at Newcastle, where he finished an admirable 2nd to Sir Gino. but the trainers post-race interview with Sky Sports Racing appeared to imply that good ground is the key for Celtic Dino and as such he may well have just one more run before a winter break and a return in the Spring. The handicapper is going to have his say on the back of this victory, but a mark in the mid-140s should continue to be workable if he is kept to handicap company.