Breeders' Cup 2025
The Breeders’ Cup is billed as the World Championships of our great sport and this year looks set to live up to that title. There are so many great races across the 2 days that it would be an impossible task to analyse every race in detail, but having looked through the data from TPD in some of the key races on Friday and Saturday, I have identified several horses that stand out as decent bets.
FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance
Ted Noffey is the most likely winner of this race. Quite a shock I know! Writing about a horse who is 10/11 at the time of writing and suggesting that he is the most likely winner. It’s hard to get away from Todd Pletcher’s charge who has won all 3 starts and dominated his races to date in the process. On all 3 starts he has exceeded his expected figures and his latest win, when finishing comfortably in front of Blackout Time in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland is the most eye-catching piece of form on offer. He was the fastest horse out of the gate, taking 6.77s to reach the first furlong pole and once in prime position, he was able to dominate the race, stretching clear to win by two and three-quarter lengths. The data could be interpreted to suggest that Blackout Time might get closer, he was caught in the pocket behind the leader and forced to switch wide, finishing his race with the fastest final quarter of a mile in 25.01s with the best run-out speed in the field (33.96 mph). He is certainly interesting for the exacta bet, but in reality he was just 0.03s faster than Ted Noffey in the closing quarter and John Velazquez was doing little more than nudging out the favourite. Either way that distance is a lot to overcome and a placed finish may be the best that Blackout Time’s connections can hope for.
Brant has the unbeaten profile, but he is a big horse, recording a peak average stride length of 25.00 ft when winning the Futurity at Del Mar over 7 furlongs. He showed good speed to dominate that race, but he was able to hold the inside rail and force his rivals wide off the turn. He seems unlikely to be unpestered in this race if he leads again and whilst his race best run-out speed in the Futurity would imply that he will finish his race well over this trip, he is surely vulnerable to the closers this time. If there is a horse to step forwards and take on Ted Noffey, it might be the Jeff Mullins trained Intrepido. We can draw a form line through Desert Gate (a late scratching for this race last weekend) between him and Brant and there isn’t much between the pair. He won the American Pharoah Stakes at Santa Anita on his latest start, where he finished with the best final 2 furlongs in the field 26.03s (12.99 and 13.04s) to run down Desert Gate after being short of room turning in. That was a remarkable performance given the way the race panned out and a run-out speed of 32.95 mph (1.72 mph faster than the runner-up) would suggest that he is going to be finishing his race well. He recorded the longest average stride length in the field for each of the final 3 furlongs at Santa Anita and seems certain to be ridden behind the pace with a view to stretching into the closing stages. In reality, Ted Noffey appears to have more in hand and if ridden out, I would expect him to improve again and prove a class apart, but there is perhaps some value in playing the other 2 in an exacta if the cramped odds don’t appeal about Todd Pletcher’s charge.
Advised Selections
TED NOFFEY (Win)
Exactas; Ted Noffey/Blackout Time, Ted Noffey/Intrepido
Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff
I think Seismic Beauty is the obvious starting point for this race. She comes into the Distaff on the back of a hat-trick of victories, including the G1 Clement L Hirsch Stakes at Del Mar in August and is one of the most progressive fillies of the season. She is unbeaten since stepping up to a mile and her latest win, which came when she made every yard of the running in August, makes her an obvious pace angle in the race. Drawn down in stall 1, she controlled the pace after running the fastest open split in the race as she took 6.61s to reach the first pole. At a peak average of 26.14 ft, she had the longest stride in the field and was able to control the pace and more importantly hold the inside rail throughout. Drawn in stall 8 this time, it won’t be quite so easy to lead, but she showed such good early speed that she should be in the front rank and is the horse that all of the others will need to pass if they are going to win. She had a couple of subsequent stakes winners behind her that day and the absence since isn’t any real cause for alarm. Whilst the runner-up (Kopion) was closing in the straight and did run the fastest final 2 furlongs in the field, she was ridden to finish her race and Seismic Beauty had the race won by that point under Juan Hernandez. If Seismic Beauty leads the Distaff field into the first turn, I don’t think she will be headed and her short price is justified on that basis.
I’ve tried to find an angle against Seismic Beauty from the TPD records in search of some better value. Nitrogen is expected to reverse the form with Gin Gin from the Spinster Stakes, at least according to the market. The draw in stall 1 may help that, but I can’t help but feel that she had every chance to pass the much smaller Gin Gin in the straight at Keeneland. Her peak average stride length of 25.44 ft was considerably longer than the 23.89 ft recorded for the winner, but despite getting on terms around the far turn, Gin Gin dug in and found more. Nitrogen covered more ground and the fact that the now retired Thorpedo Anna failed to run her race may have contributed to the way that Jose Ortiz rode the race, but Gin Gin held on and I can’t get past that, especially as she was faster in both the first and last furlongs. For that reason, I wanted to find a new form line and that led me to the other Brendan Walsh trained horse, Clicquot. She has won her last 4 starts, including the G1 Cotillon Stakes in Philadelphia last month. Having tracked the pace, she should probably have won the race easily but she looked a little awkward when in front and appeared to idle. However, she got the job done and whilst she may need a cute ride, she has an ideal draw for a stalking ride in stall 3. She recorded an average stride length of 24.84 ft when winning in Indianapolis in July and should have enough speed to hold a position behind the pace. This needs to be an each-way bet because of the way she idled in Philadelphia when hitting the front, but I think the market has slightly overlooked her form as a result of that. Seismic Beauty is clearly the most likely winner, but the way the draw has panned out has led me to the conclusion that she may face competition for the lead into the turn and as a result, I’ll take a chance on Clicquot to pick up the pieces in the straight.
Advised Selections
CLICQUOT (Each-Way)
Exacta; Seismic Beauty/Clicquot
Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf
The market would have us believe that this race is between Rebel’s Romance and Minnie Hauk and if that is indeed the case, then the draw has given the former a significant advantage. Rebel’s Romance has had another highly successful International campaign and even his defeat in the King George at Ascot in July has subsequently been well franked by Calandagan. He won this race last season with a top speed of 40.78 mph, a key figure when considering the speed data for those drawn near to him in stalls 2 and 3. However, stall 1, whilst clearly an advantage, is not guaranteed to be a gift, especially as his opening furlong in this race 12 months ago ranked only 5th and even when successful this year, his opening furlongs haven’t suggested that he is certain to bounce out of the gate and make all the running. He was ranked 9th for the opening furlong in the Hardwicke Stakes (14.17s) and 2nd in his most recent victory in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at Aqueduct (12.79s). He is a big, striding type who regularly averages a stride length figure above 25 ft and if he can be sent forwards to lead into the first turn, he may well dominate this race. However, as much as I admire him and agree with his position towards the head of the market, the doubts about stall 1 were just enough to put me off taking the price on offer.
Minnie Hauk has the shortest expected stride figure in the field, but she has the highest expected stride frequency and has shown bright early speed when winning at Chester and Epsom. The Chester performance was especially notable for this race as she was the fastest horse to reach 30 mph when the gates opened, taking just 6.2s. With the likes of Silawi and Wimbledon Hawkeye on her inside, she should at least have an opportunity to get to the front as she did in the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe and if she can get in front of Rebel’s Romance into the turn, I think that will give her a much better chance of winning the race. Her main danger could come from Gold Phoenix in stall 9. He has won his last 2 starts and may well try to use her as a target to track. I’ve made cases for both of the principles and can clearly see the case for both from the data, but I can’t really make a case for their being any value in the prices of either.
For that reason, I’m going to take a bit of a swing with the Chad Brown trained Redistricting. He chased home Rebel’s Romance in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, but he was the fastest horse out of the gate in 12.59s to the first pole. From that point, Flavien Prat made the decision to allow Rebel’s Romance to move around him at the end of the first turn. This was Redistricting’s first try at the 12 furlong trip and it is possible that he was ridden to stay that far, but conceding first run to a horse with the ability and experience of Rebel’s Romance was asking for trouble. Once into the straight, there was only ever going to be one winner, but Redistricting stayed on well to record a better run-out speed than the winner at 35.59 mph. He has a decent draw in stall 4 and appears the most likely of the lower drawn runners to be alongside Rebel’s Romance at the end of the opening furlong or so. It’s a tall ask to think that he can reverse the form, but his price reflects that and he has a much higher expected stride frequency figure. I know what you’re thinking; American turf horse against the Europeans? Probably true. But this race is full of horses that have been running in European races where the emphasis is on stamina rather than early speed. He bucks that trend and should at least get a prominent position. Given how he stayed on into the closing stages at Aqueduct, I am happy to take an each-way chance with him and accept the fact that he may be outclassed by either of the principles.
Advised Selection
Redistricting (Each-Way)
Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic
The late scratching of Sovereignty has certainly taken some of the gloss from this race, but with the Kentucky Derby and Travers Stakes winner on the sidelines, that surely leaves this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic open for the 2024 winner Sierra Leone. In last year’s race, he got the better of Fierceness and Forever Young and a small swing at the weights with the latter is surely not enough to see that form reversed. He had the longest average stride of the trio (25.33 ft), was the fastest horse in the field for 4 of the last 5 furlongs and recorded the highest run-out speed figure at 34.74 mph. If he arrives in the same form, which seems highly likely, he must surely prove hard to resist.
The incident shortly after the start with Mindframe in the Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes last time meant we can’t read too much into that form. However, having been hampered at the start, Sierra Leone finished his race well, running the fastest final 2 furlong splits in 12.04 and 12.45s, which was 0.42s faster than the winner Antiquarian and recording a race best run-out speed of 34.52 mph. That run confirmed that he is fit and well, but I think that his chance of retaining his crown is best judged by looking at his victory in the Whitney Stakes at Saratoga in August. He dominated that race in the closing stages, running the closing quarter of a mile in 24.55s, once again recording the longest stride in the field and the best run-out speed in the field. This race, much like the 2024 renewal which had a finishing speed of 95.8%, should be run at a fast early pace and from stall 7, I would expect Flavien Prat to give him a very similar ride to last year. He should be able to track the early pace and then use his long stride from midway down the back straight to bring himself into contention around the turn. With his main dangers seemingly drawn inside him, he has the right targets to aim at and should prove to be far too strong in the closing quarter of a mile.
Advised Selection
Sierra Leone (Win)
The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.