QIPCO british Champions Day 2025
The Flat season has reached its climax and we head to Ascot for Qipco British Champions Day this Saturday to celebrate another fantastic season. All of the sectional times, stride data and performance metrics from Ascot will be available through Total Performance Data this weekend. Here are some of the key statistics and my selections for the Group 1 races as we reach the end of the Flat season in the UK for 2025.
Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup
We have to go all the way back to 2009 to find the last 3-year-old winner of this race when the Richard Hills trained Akmal prevailed. Despite the entries this year, that statistic seems unlikely to change. Only once in the last 10 years has this race failed to have at least 8 runners (2018), which has made it a reasonably good race for each-way punters, although there have been 4 winning favourites in that time frame. Over such a marathon trip, the draw has a limited effect and whilst a low draw may be a slight advantage into the first turn, both Order of St George (2017) and Trueshan (2020) have overcome a double figure draw to win in the last decade. The 2023 race sets the standard in terms of time. Trawlerman recorded a winning time of 3:22.14 on ground described as Good to Soft, which made it the fastest winning time in this race (by over 3s) since the race was switched to Ascot in 2011 as part of the Champions’ Day card.
It is very hard to take on the likely favourite for this race, Trawlerman. John and Thady Gosden have won this race with him already and although he was no match for Kyprios 12-months ago, he did record a slightly faster final furlong than the winner in 12.84s and having conceded first run to Aidan O’Briens superstar in the straight, I don’t think there was anything lost in that defeat. He has beaten everything this season, including when demolishing the field to win the Gold Cup at the Royal meeting, where he made most of the running, ran the fastest final 2 furlongs and still had enough left in the tank to record the fastest run-out speed in the field at 33.53 mph. At a peak average of 25.59 ft, he had a much longer stride than his 2 nearest rivals in the Gold Cup and it seems highly likely that William Buick will look to employ similar tactics again on Saturday. He showed at York that if necessary, he can battle to win a more steadily run race, as he got the better of Sweet William in the closing stages despite having a slower top speed figure than his stablemate. Questions are often raised about the strength of the stayers’ division and recent evidence from the Doncaster Cup and the Prix du Cadran do probably justify those doubts. However, the negativity cannot be applied to Trawlerman, who has produced a series of superb performances this season and he should be capable of crowing a fine season with another Ascot success.
Qipco British Champions Sprint
Since this race was switched to Ascot in 2011, the 3-year-olds have had a fair record, winning 4 races in that time courtesy of Muhaarar (2015), Sands of Mali (2018), Creative Force (2021) and last years winner Kind of Blue. Of the 14 renewals of this race run at Ascot since that switch, 9 of those have been run on ground described as Soft or Heavy, which seems highly unlikely this year and so any of these statistics need to be adjusted to allow for the likely quicker ground on Saturday afternoon. The winners have come from all parts of the draw, with no stall enjoying more than 2 winners in the time period discussed. Perhaps more interestingly, the Fillies and Mares are 0-47 in this race and that would be a concern when looking at the likes of Rayevka and Rosy Affair who have that significant stat to overcome despite their weight allowances.
Wathnan Racing have a strong hand for this year’s race and my admiration for Lazzat is very well known. If Lazzat turns up in the same form that he showed at the Royal meeting when getting the better of Satono Reve, then he will win. In my opinion, that is the best piece of sprint form on offer in this field and a repeat of it should be more than enough to dispatch this field. However, there are doubts now after a pair of lacklustre efforts at Deauville and Haydock as to whether Lazzat is capable of repeating that level of form. He struggled at Haydock, running final furlongs that ranked 7th and 4th in the Sprint Cup and a Top Speed of 42.28 mph ranked 15th of the 17 runners. There is no doubt in my mind that Ascot will suit better than Haydock, but having been on the go since early March at Saint-Cloud, there wasn’t enough to suggest that he will return to form last time.
For that reason, I will stick with a different approach in the same colours and back last year’s winner Kind of Blue. James Fanshawe has a superb record in this race and after a couple of below par efforts at the start of the season, the recent signs have been very good for Kind of Blue. He managed to win this race 12-months ago despite the fact that he wasn’t the fastest horse in any of the 6 furlong splits and his top speed of 39.37 mph ranked only 6th. However, he got a superb ride from James Doyle and looks to have been aimed at a return to this race for the entire season. He finished 2nd in the Sprint Cup at Haydock behind Big Mojo, but he was just 0.09s slower than the winner over the final quarter of a mile and having been the fastest horse in the 3rd furlong, he perhaps got going a little too soon. That was an improvement on his earlier form and he shaped like a horse who was coming to his peak.
Qipco British Champions Fillies and Mares Stakes
This is another race that has been dominated by the 3-year-olds since it joined the Champions Day program in 2011. The classic generation have won 10 of the 14 runnings in that time, including 7 of the last 8 and the 6 lb allowance that the younger fillies receive is clearly a contributing factor. The time standard is set by Dancing Rain, who recorded 2:27.11 when winning the race in 2011 for William Haggas. Kalpana won this race in 2024 and will be back to have another go after a disappointing run in the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe a fortnight ago. She has an obvious chance if she returns to her best form, but you have to go back to Crystal Capella (2008 and 2010) to find a multiple winner of this race. It’s no surprise to see that the 3 and 4-year-olds are dominant, this is a race for Fillies and Mares and with Broodmare careers awaiting for most of the runners, there have been very few older horses in this race over the years (11 since 2011). However, if you do fancy Kalpana to bounce back to form, it may be comforting to know that just 4 of the winners since 2011 came into this race as winners last time out.
I’m more than happy to leave Kalpana after a pair of disappointing runs and the experiment with headgear at Paris Longchamp didn’t overly inspire me anyway. I’ll stick with the 3-year-olds and the horse that I like most is Waardah, trained by Owen Burrows. She has won her last 2 starts and looks to be on an upward curve of improvement at the right time. Her victory over Danielle in the Lilly Langtry at Goodwood was a career best performance and the fact that a couple of the “also rans” have subsequently come out and won races at Listed level can only enhance confidence about the strength of that form. Held up towards the rear by Callum Rodriguez, she made smooth headway, recording 10.96 and 10.87s for the 11th and 12th furlongs, the only runner in the field to dip below the magic 11s for an individual furlong in the race. That race was over 1 mile and 6 furlongs, but she showed plenty of speed and the drop back to 12 furlongs shouldn’t be a concern, especially as she recorded the fastest run-out speed in the field at Goodwood (34.94 mph). Another patient ride seems likely, but this has clearly been the plan for some time and the race should set up nicely for her to come with a late run up the Ascot hill.
Queen Elizabeth II Stakes
As a general rule, this is a race for the 3-year-olds. The classic generation have won 5 of the last 7 renewals of the race and 9 of the 14 runnings that have taken place since the advent of Champions’ Day in 2011. The time standard is set by Minding, who clocked 1:38.53 when winning the race on ground described as Good in 2016. That time was over 2s below the TPD expected time for the grade and since 2011, only Minding and Frankel (1:39.45 in 2011) have run a sub 1:40.00 time. It seems unlikely that her time will be beaten, but the drying ground will at least give the runners a chance perhaps. The Queen Elizabeth II Stakes has become a stallion making race and there have been 10 winning Colts since 2011, with the Fillies holding a record of 2 wins from 21 that have tried. Of the 14 winners on Champions’ Day, 9 came into the race having won last time out and you can actually back the last time out winners blind in this race to a level stakes profit of +£16.34 to a £1 stake. Although it’s a relatively small sample size, the fact that stalls 6 and 7 have had 4 winners each would at least suggest that a middle draw is not a bad thing to get.
Field of Gold is an obvious place to start and his form from the St James’ Palace Stakes in June makes him the clear favourite. However, he is a very short price for a horse that we haven’t seen since the Sussex Stakes and it’s possible to argue that his best form has come with a bend to run around. Both Henri Matisse (2nd) and Ruling Court (3rd) recorded longer average stride lengths in the St James’ Palace Stakes and I have doubts as to whether a strong gallop is going to suit the Gosden’s charge. He may well win and make this seem a foolish idea, but I’d rather take him on each-way at the prices and just take my medicine if he is the superstar that he appeared to be in June. Never So Brave makes a lot of appeal. He has form on the straight track after winning the Buckingham Palace Stakes at the Royal meeting, a race where he recorded the fastest run-out speed in the 27 runner field at 36.82 mph. That confirmed his stamina for the trip and since then he has added a Summer Mile (G2) on the round course and the Group 1 City of York Stakes in August to his CV. In both races he has run the fastest penultimate furlong in the field and with Oisin Murphy on board, I would expect him to get a similar ride on Saturday, stalking the pace before coming with his challenge inside the final quarter of a mile. His winning time in the Buckingham Palace Stakes was 2.86s faster than the TPD expected time and his course form is more than enough to persuade me that his price is too big. There are clearly cases to be made for plenty of the runners in this year’s QEII, but none are on an upward trajectory in the same manner as Never So Brave and that makes him a decent each-way bet against the market.
Qipco British Champions Fillies and Mares Stakes
Since the race was moved to Ascot in 2011 there have been 4 three-year-old winners (Almanzor, Cracksman, Sealiway and King of Steel) so the task facing Delacroix is not an impossible one. The great Cirrus des Aigles sets the standard in terms of a winning time with a figure of 2:02.52 in 2011 under Christophe Soumillon and the drying ground at Ascot does offer some hope that the record time in this race could be under threat. Like many of the races this weekend, the draw is not as significant as it may first appear, although the lower numbers have enjoyed success, there have been winners from stalls 8 and 10 since 2011.
This has quite rightly been billed as one of the best races of the season on paper, with a strong case to be made for each of the big players. Ombudsman has already won the Prince of Wales’s Stakes and the Juddmonte International at York and that would clearly offer some hope that he can crown a fine season with another Group 1. If there is a criticism of him, it is that his success has coincided with having a pacemaker to aim at and his defeat in the Eclipse at Sandown, where he arguably hit the front too soon, came in a more tactical race. Delacroix struggled in the Juddmonte International and has since rectified that defeat with a highly impressive performance in the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown and he rates a significant danger. However, I can’t get away from Calandagan and he looks to be the value bet in the market at this stage. Francis-Henri Graffard has had a fantastic season and after using his star 4-year-old to help ready Daryz for his Arc success, it could now be Calandagan’s turn to take the spotlight.
His victory in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes in July is the piece of form that interests me. Any doubts as to whether he will be as effective over the 10 furlong trip should be dispelled by the data from that race. A top speed of 40.73 mph was faster than Ombudsman recorded in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes a month earlier, as was his final furlong time of 11.77s. This race, with the pace almost certainly guaranteed, should setup perfectly for Calandagan and he should gain compensation for an unlucky defeat in this race last year. On that occasion, Stephane Pasquier was on board and after a slow start, he chose to try and make his ground along the inside rail. That left him vulnerable to Anmaat, who enjoyed an easier passage in the straight, but Calandagan did record the fastest run-out speed in the field (32.88 mph) and Mickael Barzalona is unlikely to take the inside line. At an average of 7.48m, Calandagan had the longest stride in the King George field and he should be able to use that stride to finish his race strongly on Saturday. He has achieved at least as much as the other 2 this season and all the time he is the biggest price of the 3, he will be a value bet.