Let’s start with the time data before we get on to how impressive Ted Noffey was when winning this year’s running of the Hopeful Stakes. A winning time of 1:22.35 was the 4th fastest time since the year 2000 with only Came Home (2001), Ralis (2015) and Jackie’s Warrior (2020) going faster. That’s a decent start but when we then consider that Ted Noffey had to overcome the widest draw and from the 2-furlong pole he had to take up the running himself, we can upgrade this performance even further. He was the fastest horse over each of the final 3-furlong splits, closing his race in 11.78, 11.97 and 12.20s, 1.27s quicker than the runner-up over the same distance, as he ran out a comfortable 8-length winner. He had been workmanlike when winning his maiden here 4-weeks ago, but he finished strongly that day too with the fastest final 3-furlongs in the field and is clearly a very strong stayer at this 7-furlong trip. A son of Spendthrift Farms own stallion Into Mischief, he recorded the highest stride frequency average in the field (2.35 per second) as he quickened away in the closing stages, even increasing his stride frequency figure into the final furlong when he had the race won. A run-out speed of 35.4 mph was another “race best” figure, over 2 mph faster than the next best (Aye Eye 33.29 mph) and there is every reason to believe that he could have gone faster if there had been another rival that was capable of taking him deeper into the contest. However, once he hit the front rounding the far turn, his rivals were quickly floundering and the fact that he was at least 0.87s quicker than any of his 6 rivals in the final furlong confirms the visual impression that he was entirely dominant in the home stretch. 

This is 2-year-old form and as such it does need to be treated with some caution given the fields limited experience, but the runner-up, Buetane, was a comfortable debut winner at Del Mar for Bob Baffert, where he recorded some smart closing sectionals. Shipped in from the West Coast for this Grade 1 event, Flavien Prat must have been fairly happy with his position 2-lengths behind the lead at the end of the back stretch, but once into the straight he was readily left behind by Ted Noffey and John Velazquez, losing over a second to the winner in the final quarter of a mile. At that point of the contest, Ted Noffey had the higher speed figure, a longer stride and a higher stride frequency figure, so whilst Buetane’s connections may point to the fact that he had to come wider around the turn, the data would suggest that he has a mountain to climb to reverse this form. When a horse wins a Juvenile Grade 1 by such a wide margin, it’s easy for an overreaction to develop and after just 2 starts, it would be impossible to have an entirely accurate idea of what Ted Noffey may be capable of achieving. However, the data supports the visual impression that this was one of the best Juvenile performances that we have seen so far in 2025 and as such, Todd Pletchers Colt is one of the most exciting prospects in this year’s crop.