This week’s review of the data from TPD is primarily focussed on the Flat season as we build up to the first classics of the year next weekend. However, having stated in an earlier blog that the review of the Jumps season data was over until the autumn, I couldn’t resist a look at the data from last week’s Sussex Champion Hurdle at Plumpton, which was arguably the best race ever to be run at the track. Here’s a look at the data from Plumpton, as well as a look at some of the key races on the Flat over the last week.
Plumpton
BetGoodwin Sussex Champion Hurdle (Handicap) – 20th April 2025
This race has been called “the best race ever to be run at the Plumpton”. We can’t use the data from TPD to prove that, but there is certainly a case to be made that Absurde is the best winner over hurdles at the Sussex track. A winning time of 3:39.64 stands out, over 4.5s faster than the TPD standard time for a race of this class over the course and distance. In part, that time figure was helped by a fast early pace set by Our Champ and Spirit D’Aunou. They took 109.16s to reach the halfway point and that certainly played to the strengths of the Willie Mullins pair, who were able to race 5-lengths behind the pace before making their challenge in the home straight. Absurde produced a good round of jumping, losing an average of 3.9% of his speed over his hurdles, a figure that improved into the closing stages and that allowed him to keep in touch with the fast early pace. With a top speed of 37.83 mph, Absurde was only the 3rd fastest horse on the speedometer, but he raced efficiently with a finishing speed of 101% and once asked for his effort, he was a clear best. Closing in 13.80 and 14.65s furlongs, both of which were the fastest in the field, he asserted in the home straight to win by 4-lengths by being over a second faster than any of his rivals over the final quarter of a mile. The fast pace and the stiff uphill finish clearly suited, as he recorded the fastest run-out speed in the field at 29.37 mph and having added £39,022 to Willie Mullins’ charge for the trainers title, this was a clever piece of placement from his master trainer.
Having conceded 3lbs to his talented stablemate, we should also heap praise on the performance of Daddy Long Legs, who ran a fine race to give the Mullins team a 1,2 finish. Having traveled strongly around the bottom bend, he jumped the 2nd last with a marginal lead before succumbing to his stablemate’s better flat speed on the run-in, losing 1.16s to Absurde over the final quarter of a mile. However, he has readily seen off Our Champ for 2nd place, despite having to concede 22lbs to him and after a 2nd placed finish in the Irish Champion Hurdle and a solid run in the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham festival, he has had a good season.
Willie Mullins also ran the dual Cheltenham festival winner Sir Gerhard in this contest. He finished 6th, beaten 14-lengths, but that highlights the depth of this years’ race and as such, Our Champ emerges from this contest with an enormous amount of credit. The winner of this race 12-months ago, he raced off a 13lb higher mark on Sunday, but produced a career best under an enterprising ride from Freddie Gordon. Sent forwards, he set fast early fractions, running 12.57 and 11.96s for the opening 2-furlongs, both of which were the fastest splits in the field. Maintaining that pace with a finishing speed of 96.95%, he did remarkably well to still be in contention at the 2nd last and battled on well after the last to hold the 4th placed Knickerbockerglory, who was ridden more patiently. Producing the best jumping display in the field with an average of just 3.5% speed lost over his obstacles, it has taken a 150+ performance from the Willie Mullins pair to get the better of him. Still only a 7-year-old, his time of 3:40.49 was over 3-seconds quicker than the expected TPD Standard time for this course and distance and in most years would have been more than enough to win this race. Even allowing for a small rise from the handicapper next week, he should remain competitive at this level next season.
Epsom
Blue Riband Trial (Listed Race)
A winning time of 2:08.68 was marginally quicker than last year’s race that was won by Bellum Justum, but overall this was a slowly run race where the first 3 home all had finishing speed above 109%. That certainly meant that the winner, Sea Scout, was slightly flattered by racing prominently and although he exceeded expectations, as his 40/1 SP would suggest, he was a beneficiary of a good ride from Harry Davies and was ideally placed to get the first run in the closing stages. The runner-up, Trinity College, can be considered an unlucky loser, having clocked a higher top speed than the winner at 41.61 mph, the best in the race and ran 10.86s for the penultimate furlong. Although slightly hampered when Sea Scout shifted to his right, the Stewards enquiry concluded that it was insufficient interference to have affected the result and Ryan Moore reported that his mount had hung left-handed, which isn’t ideal on the Epsom Camber. For that reason, we can certainly upgrade his performance and although he had the benefit of a recent run, he has produced a career best to finish 2nd here given the way the race panned out.
Credit should also be given to the 3rd placed Mirabeau, who was the slowest horse out of the gate, taking 19.22s to reach the 9-furlong pole. Slightly short of room and forced to switch out behind runners with 3-furlongs to run, he recovered well once changing his lead leg and finished in 11.16 and 12.20s furlongs. In a slowly run race, he was set a very difficult task after taking 10.3s to reach 30 mph and is worth forgiving, although the balance of his Juvenile form would suggest that a mark of 100 is a fair reflection of his ability. The first 3 have all run well, but it’s hard to be overly enthusiastic about the remainder of the field. Tiberius Thunder ran well in the Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown last month and having started nicely from the plum draw in stall 1, there really aren’t any excuses for him as he faded into 4th, losing 0.80s on the winner over the final quarter of a mile. Not every horse will handle the course at Epsom and he may be better on a more conventional track, but having traveled in front at a relatively sedate pace, he should have seen out his race better and a run-out speed of 31.68 mph (ranked 6th of 7) would suggest that he didn’t have much left to give.
This race was established in 1937 and in its various guises it has been run as a trial for the Derby. However, you have to go back to Blue Peter in 1939 to find the last winner of this to go on to win the Derby and although Sea Scout and Trinity College have run good races, it seems unlikely that this particular trend will be broken at Epsom in 6-weeks time.
Sandown
Bet365 Mile (Group 3)
After an impressive display at Doncaster, Dancing Gemini took his form to another level with this 2-length victory over Tamfana. Settling perfectly behind the early pace, he was ideally placed to get the first run into the straight and when Rossa Ryan asked him for an effort, he responded with furlongs of 11.92 and 11.98s which saw him 3-lengths clear at the furlong pole. That proved to be enough to see him home and this was a very professional performance, but some of the data would suggest that he was a slightly fortunate winner on the day and there is a case to be made that those in behind may be able to reverse the form. With a top speed of 37.73 mph, both the runner-up and the 3rd were faster than him on the speedometer and the final 4-furlongs do suggest that the closers were getting to him.
I’ll start with Tamfana. She ended her 2024 campaign with a 3rd placed finish in the QEII at Ascot on Champion’s Day and on her first start since, she has run a fine race here. Racing in rear, she took 41.80s to reach the 3-furlong pole, 0.87s slower than Dancing Gemini. However, she began to close from the 4-furlong pole and was faster than the winner over each of the last 4-furlongs. A run-out speed of 32.19 mph was better than Dancing Gemini too (30.65 mph). At an average stride length of 24.21 ft, she was suited by a strong pace and a finishing speed of 103% and given that she should come on for the run, she is a filly to note in the weeks ahead as we build up to Royal Ascot.
Although he was sent off at an SP of 16/1, Cicero’s Gift took a big step forward on his earlier form and I was particularly impressed with the way that he finished his race. He weaved through the field under Jason Watson and even allowing for his awkward and slightly raised head-carriage in the closing stages, a top speed of 38.81 mph and a run-out speed of 32.84 mph were considerably quicker than the winner and his final furlong time of 12.67s was the best in the field. He was ridden to come home well, but those finishing speeds would suggest that he should remain competitive at this level for Charlie Hills. The French raider Alcantor ran well to a point on the outside of the field, but his top speed of 37.51 mph was the slowest of the first 5 home and he couldn’t get himself on terms at any stage.
If there is a horse to forgive, then perhaps it is Haatem, who shaped like a horse that needed this first run of the season. He was the fastest horse from the gate, taking 6.7s to reach 30 mph with an opening furlong of 15.39s. Still in front at the 2-furlong pole, he faded tamely, finishing in 12.35 and 14.01s furlongs, 1.39s slower than Dancing Gemini. A winning time of 1:43.53 is faster than recent winners like Charyn, Palace Pier and Addeybb and he may simply have done too much too soon on his first start for 307-days.
You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the At The Races RESULTS page.
The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.